Optimal Operation of the Multireservoir System in the Seine River Basin Using Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts

Abstract

General rightsThis document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. Full terms of use are available: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/pure/about/ebr-terms Correspondence to: andrea.ficchi@irstea.fr 2 AbstractWe investigate the improvement of the operation of a four-reservoir system in the Seine River basin, France, by use of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts and real-time control. In the current management, each reservoir is operated independently from the others and following prescribed rule-curves, designed to reduce floods and sustain low-flows under the historical hydrological conditions. However, this management system is inefficient when inflows are significantly different from their seasonal average and may become even more inadequate to cope with the predicted increase in extreme events induced by climate change.In this work, we develop and test a centralized real-time control system to improve reservoirs operation by exploiting numerical weather forecasts that are becoming increasingly available.The proposed management system implements a well-established optimization technique, Model Predictive Control (MPC) and its recently modified version that can incorporate uncertainties, Tree-Based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC), to account for deterministic and ensemble forecasts respectively. The management system is assessed by simulation over historical events and compared to the "no-forecasts" strategy based on rule-curves.Simulation results show that the proposed real-time control system largely outperforms the "no-forecasts" management strategy, and that explicitly considering forecasts uncertainty through ensembles can compensate for the loss in performance due to forecasts inaccuracy.

Performance of Deterministic and Probabilistic Hydrological Forecasts for the Short-Term Optimization of a Tropical Hydropower Reservoir

“…Results for the case study demonstrated that some of the specific approaches that were tested could be useful for real-time reservoir operation. Ficchì (2015) presented a study where authors aimed to investigate the improvement of a four-reservoir operation system in the Seine River basin, France, using an ensemble of weather forecasts and a real-time control approach. In the proposed system, a model predictive control (MPC) optimization technique was used, and it was modified to a version that incorporated uncertainties in the form of a tree-based model predictive control (TB-MPC) approach in order to account for deterministic and ensemble forecasts, respectively.…”

Inferring efficient operating rules in multireservoir water resource systems: A review

“…Their performance has been found to be superior to regression (Bessler et al, ); and similar to ANNs (Senthil Kumar et al, ) and BNs (Sherafatpour et al, ). They have also been used to forecast future inflows to be used by optimization algorithms (Castelletti et al, ; Chazarra et al, ; Côté & Leconte, ; Ficchì et al, ; Housh, Ostfeld, & Shamir, ).…”

“…Main options for inflow forecasting in Model Predictive Control Inflow forecasting approach Examples of applications Hydrologic and/or hydraulic models forced with meteorological forecasts Bianucci, Sordo-Ward, Moralo, and Garrote(2015), Caseri, Javelle, Ramos, and Leblois (2016),Côté and Leconte (2015),Faber and Stedinger (2001),Ficchì et al (2015),Pianosi and Ravazzani (2010),Raso, Schwanenberg, van de Giesen, and van Overloop (2014) …”

Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change

“…The four reservoirs in the system are operated independently and follow filling curves that determine the target amount of water retained in the reservoir each 30 day of the year. During the high flow seasons of November -June they store water in order to maintain low flows during the upcoming dry season, a necessary function to regulate water levels for shipping and drinking water to approximately 20 million people, among other socio-economic benefits (Ficchì et al, 2016;Dorchies et al, 2014). During this flooding event, all of the reservoirs were near 90% full in anticipation of typically dry conditions in the summer months.…”