Operator Decision Performance Using Probabilistic Displays of Object Location

Herman, Louis M.; Ornstein, George N.; Bahrick, Harry P.

doi:10.1109/thfe.1964.231649

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The lack of a demonstrable learning effect with feedback for the interpolated repeated decision task is not consistent with findings such as those of Dale (1962), but is consistent with results reported in Herman et al (1964) for With an opportunity to exercise only 40 decisions over 10 alternatives, it is not possible to sample all alternatives adequately to gain experience with outcome. Given advance knowledge that there would be a limit of 40 decisions, 5s appeared to restrict their choices to some initially preferred subset of the 10.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 46%

“…Interpolated decision task.-This task was identical to the repeated decision problem specified in Herman et al (1964), requiring that 5 1 select 1 of 10 time stages of an attack mission to "fire" at a target. A conventional target location display was used, with true values of the probability parameters (probability of hitting the target at each stage) provided S a priori.…”

Section: Experiments I Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Information encoding and decision time as variables in human choice behavior.

Herman¹

1966

Journal of Experimental Psychology

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Paired-comparison wagers were offered to Ss under 2 different methods of encoding decision-parameter information. Method 1 provided S with a set of 4 elements of nonindependent parameter information, Method 2 with a subset comprised of 2 independent elements. Ss' choices showed significantly closer correspondence to an EV-maximization decision rule under Method 2, for both independent groups and repeated-measures designs. With repeated measures, it was found that given sufficient decision time, Method 2 transferred positively to Method 1, with the opposite true (negative transfer) when order of administration was reversed. It was concluded that the basic problem for S in choice situations is the selection of decision rules rather than of decision alternatives. Decision rules may then be asymmetrically transferrable across different encoding methods.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 46%

Section: Experiments I Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Information encoding and decision time as variables in human choice behavior.

Herman¹

1966

Journal of Experimental Psychology

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“…Such confidence computations can be used in order to prune out estimates that do not pass a predefined confidence threshold. The notion of presenting this confidence estimate to users as additional information was suggested many decades ago (Herman, Ornstein, & Bahrick, 1964).…”

Section: Confidence In a Recommendationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating confidence displays for top‐N recommendations

Shani

Rokach

Shapira

et al. 2013

J Am Soc Inf Sci Tec

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Recommendation systems often compute fixed length lists of recommended items to users. Forcing the system to predict a fixed length list for each user may result in different confidence levels for the computed recommendations. Reporting the system's confidence in its predictions (the recommendation strength) can provide valuable information to users in making their decisions. In this paper we investigate several different displays of the system's confidence to users and conclude that some displays are easier to understand and are favored by most users. We continue to investigate the effect confidence has on users, in terms of their perception of the recommendation quality and the user experience with the system. Our studies show that it was not easier for users to identify relevant items when confidence is displayed. Still, users appreciated the displays, and trusted them when the relevance of items is difficult to establish.

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Multiple regression as a model for human information utilization

Beach

1967

Organizational Behavior and Human Performance

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Operator Decision Performance Using Probabilistic Displays of Object Location

Cited by 8 publications

References 6 publications

Information encoding and decision time as variables in human choice behavior.

Information encoding and decision time as variables in human choice behavior.

Investigating confidence displays for top‐N recommendations

Multiple regression as a model for human information utilization

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