Opciones reales para determinar el turno óptimo en sistemas silvopastoriles: análisis de inversión

Abstract

RESUMENEl trabajo propone analizar y valorar, desde la perspectiva económica-financiera, el momento óptimo de cosecha en un sistema silvopastoril, utilizando las Opciones Reales (OR) como herramienta para la toma de decisiones estratégicas. Ésta se basa en un proceso estocástico para la proyección de precios, mientras que el Valor Actual Neto (VAN) utiliza una tasa fija en todo el proyecto. Los resultados mediante OR indican talar a los 18 años con un VOR (Valor Opción Real) $AR 1 088 339 frente a la alternativa VAN de talar a los 11 años y $AR 511 914. PALABRAS CLAVE Flujo de fondos, momento óptimo, opciones reales, rejilla binomial. ABSTRACTIn this work we assess, from an economic and financial perspective, the optimal time of timber harvest in joint forestry-pasture systems. For this we apply a Real Options (RO) approach as a tool of strategic decision making. It assumes a stochastic process of price projections and is compared with the present value (NPV) computed on the basis of a fixed rate all along the project. The results obtained by means of the RO approach recommend cutting at 18 years with a ROV (Real Options Valuation) of $AR 1 088 339 (ARG) against the alternative NPV assessment that recommends cutting at 11 years and yields $AR 511 914.

The Argentinian forest sector: opportunities and challenges in supply chain management

“…One of the main characteristics of forestry systems is the low flexibility in the raw material generation, which is regulated by the period of time it takes a tree to grow until it reaches a proper size for its industrialization. In Argentina, a rotation turn for coniferous takes around 15 years, depending on the economic opportunity to carry out the logging (Milanesi et al, 2013 andMilanesi et al, 2012). However, in general, the rotation turn varies from 13 to 22 years, depending on the variety of tree and the expected output products.…”

“…Then, determining the horizon length is a critical issue. In this sense, Broz et al (2014) and Milanesi et al (2013) propose a real options approach as a financial-economic tool to define the optimal turn. It considers stochastic average sell prices for the products, considering that the prices follow a Brownian geometric stochastic process, a discrete time representation and the use of binomials grids based on the model's parameters.…”