On the use of Standardized Drought Indices under decadal climate variability: Critical assessment and drought policy implications

Núñez, Javier; Rivera, Diego; Oyarzún, Roberto; Arumí, José Luis

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.038

Cited by 58 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…We believe that the SSI has the potential to improve hydrological drought monitoring across the CAA and NP and might be integrated with the actual streamflow monitoring, which is based on the percentage of normal streamflow. The effect of multidecadal climate variability limits the applicability of the SSI, as shown by [35]. Nevertheless, this study attempted to limit this negative effect by selecting only 46 years of data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This index was obtained through the SCI package for R [33], a commonly used package to calculate standardized drought indices. In this study, the SSI was calculated on time scale of 3 months (SSI3), following previous work from [34,35]. Nevertheless, the index can be obtained on many time scales (i.e., accumulating streamflow monthly data over 1, 3, 6, 12 or 24 months).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2010–2015 Extreme Hydrological Drought across the Central Andes, Argentina

Rivera

Penalba

Villalba

et al. 2017

Water

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During the period 2010-2015, the semi-arid Central Andes in Argentina (CAA) experienced one of the most severe and long-lasting hydrological droughts on record. Since the snowmelt is the most important source of water, the reduced snowfall over the mountains propagated the drought signal through the streamflows in the adjacent foothills east of the Andes ranges. Motivated by the widespread impacts on the socio-economic activities in the region, this study aims to characterize the recent hydrological drought in terms of streamflow deficits. Based on streamflow data from 20 basins, we used the standardized streamflow index (SSI) to characterize hydrological droughts during the period 1971-2016. We found that the regional extent of the 2010-2015 hydrological drought was limited to the basins located north of 38 • S, with mean duration of 67 months and maximum drought severity exhibiting a heterogeneous pattern in terms of spatial distribution and time of occurrence. The drought event reached extreme conditions in 14 of the 15 basins in the CAA, being record-breaking drought in six of the basins. This condition was likely driven by a cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean resembling La Niña conditions, which generated a decrease in snowfall over the Andes due to suppressed frontal activity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2010–2015 Extreme Hydrological Drought across the Central Andes, Argentina

Rivera

Penalba

Villalba

et al. 2017

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For the sake of a parsimonious model structure, these characteristics were omitted in this study but their future consideration could help to improve the simulations if information about the depth profile of permeability is available. A decrease in performance was also found for standardised indices that use probability distributions instead of a simulation model (Vicente-Serrano et al, 2012;Núñez et al, 2014;Van Lanen et al, 2016). To improve the approach's reliability for higher groundwater level percentiles, a model calibration that is more focussed on the high groundwater level percentiles may be a promising direction.…”

Section: Performance Of the Percentile Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

Brenner

Coxon

Howden

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Chalk aquifers are an important source of drinking water in the UK. Due to their properties, they are particularly vulnerable to groundwater-related hazards like floods and droughts. Understanding and predicting groundwater levels is therefore important for effective and safe water management. Chalk is known for its high porosity and, due to its dissolvability, exposed to karstification and strong subsurface heterogeneity. To cope with the karstic heterogeneity and limited data availability, specialised modelling approaches are required that balance model complexity and data availability. In this study, we present a novel approach to evaluate simulated groundwater level frequencies derived from a semi-distributed karst model that represents subsurface heterogeneity by distribution functions. Simulated groundwater storages are transferred into groundwater levels using evidence from different observations wells. Using a percentile approach we can assess the number of days exceeding or falling below selected groundwater level percentiles. Firstly, we evaluate the performance of the model when simulating groundwater level time series using a spilt sample test and parameter identifiability analysis. Secondly, we apply a split sample test to the simulated groundwater level percentiles to explore the performance in predicting groundwater level exceedances. We show that the model provides robust simulations of discharge and groundwater levels at three observation wells at a test site in a chalk-dominated catchment in south-western England. The second split sample test also indicates that the percentile approach is able to reliably predict groundwater level exceedances across all considered timescales up to their 75th percentile. However, when looking at the 90th percentile, it only provides acceptable predictions for long time periods and it fails when the 95th percentile of groundwater exceedance levels is considered. By modifying the historic forcings of our model according to expected future climate changes, we create simple climate scenarios and we show that the projected climate changes may lead to generally lower groundwater levels and a reduction of exceedances of high groundwater level percentiles.

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“…There are many studies of drought indices (e.g., [14,45]). The selection of indices depends mainly on the research objectives (e.g., water resource management, ecosystem management, wetland, drought protection and reservoir operation).…”

Section: Drought Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments

Meresa

Osuch

Romanowicz

2016

Water

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Abstract:The nature of drought conditions is estimated using a range of indices describing different aspects of drought events. Three drought indices are evaluated, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), using observed hydroclimatic data and applying them to hydro-meteorological projections into the 21st century. The first two indices are evaluated using only meteorological variables and from this point of view, are better suited to meteorological drought projections than the third index, SRI, which is based on catchment discharge and represents hydrological drought. We assess information contained in those indices and their suitability to catchment scale climate projection drought assessment in ten selected Polish catchments, representing different hydro-climatic conditions, which are used as a case study. Projections of climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) are obtained from the EURO-CORDEX initiative derived from seven climate models at a grid resolution of 12.5 km for the time period 1971-2100. Future runoff projections for the catchments are obtained using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV). The results of analyses of indices based on observations in the reference period show consistent estimates for most of the catchments. Hydro-meteorological climate model projections for three periods, including the reference period 1971-2000, and two 30-year periods, near-future 2021-2050 and far-future 2071-2100, are used to estimate changes of future drought conditions in the catchments studied. The results show a substantial variation of temporal drought patterns over the catchments and their dependence on projected precipitation and temperature variables and the type of indices applied. Of the three indices studied, only SPEI projections indicate drier conditions in the catchments in the far-future period. The other two indices, SPI and SRI, indicate wetter climates in the future.

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On the use of Standardized Drought Indices under decadal climate variability: Critical assessment and drought policy implications

Cited by 58 publications

References 60 publications

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2010–2015 Extreme Hydrological Drought across the Central Andes, Argentina

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2010–2015 Extreme Hydrological Drought across the Central Andes, Argentina

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments

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