On the structure of the present-day convergence

Abstract

Purpose -A substantial number of researchers have investigated the global economic dynamics of this time to disprove unconditional convergence and refute its very idea, stating the phenomenon of conditional convergence instead. However, most respective papers limit their investigation period with the early or mid-2000s. In the authors' opinion, some of the global trends which revealed themselves particularly clearly in the second half of the 2000s call for a revision of the convergence issue. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach -Several methodologies for measuring the global convergence/ divergence trends exist in the economic literature. This paper seeks to contribute to the existing literature on unconditional b-convergence of the per capita incomes at the global level. Findings -In the recent years, the gap between high-income and middle-income countries is decreasing especially rapidly. The gap between high-income and low-income countries, meanwhile, is decreasing at a much slower pace. At the same time, the gap between middle-income and low-income countries is actually widening. Indeed, in the early 1980s GDP per capita in the low-income countries was on average three times lower than in the middle-income countries, and this gap was totally overshadowed by the more than ten-time abyss between the middle-income and the high-income countries. Now, however, the GDP per capita in low-income countries lags behind the middle-income ones by more than five times, which is largely the same as the gap (rapidly contracting in the recent years) between the high-income and the middle-income countries. This clearly suggests that the configuration of the world system has experienced a very significant transformation in the recent 30 years.Research limitations/implications -The research concentrates upon the dynamics of the gap in per capita income between the high-income, the middle-income, and the low-income countries. Originality/value -This paper's originality/value lies in drawing attention to the specific changes in the structure of global convergence/divergence patterns and their implications for the low-income countries.Various aspects of convergence and the catch-up effect have attracted considerable scholarly attention, including the questions of unconditional (absolute) convergence vs conditional convergence; global convergence vs local or club-convergence;The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at

Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting?

“…And this divergence may continue for some time, as not all the least-developed countries are ready for the take-off. This may be further aggravated by the point that these are the least developed countries where we observe the highest population growth rates (see Korotayev and Khaltourina 2006;Korotayev and Zinkina 2014;Zinkina and Korotayev 2014 for more detail). On the other hand, there are some grounds to maintain that in some time we will observe a certain equalization within the developing countries themselves.…”

“…Such a psychology may still be found among some inhabitants of the most underdeveloped areas (especially, in Tropical Africa). 9 However, in many developing (mostly middle-income) countries the situation has changed, which is why the third world is transforming from sleeping and apathetic into rather dynamic indeed (Korotayev et al 2011a(Korotayev et al , 2011b(Korotayev et al , 2012Korotayev and Zinkina 2014;Grinin 2013). And one of the main changes may be seen just in the change of life priorities of hundreds million, who make more and more active attempts in order to escape from poverty and illiteracy into a new life.…”

“…The growth of the convergence rate in the recent decades is directly connected with the fact that during those decades one could observe a very significant growth of the number of those developing countries that passed that passed this threshold level. Indeed, as we have argued on a number of occasions these are medium developed countries that tend to grow faster than either the least developed countries or the most developed ones (Korotayev and Khaltourina 2009;Korotayev and Zinkina 2014). It is also very important to stress that at present the majority of the developing countries (with a total population of about 5 billion) belong to the category of the medium developed ("middle income") countries (World Bank 2014), whereas only the minority of the third world population (the so-called "bottom billion" [2007]) live now in the least developed countries.…”

Great Divergence and Great Convergence

“…The growth of the convergence rate in the recent decades is directly connected with the fact that during those decades one could observe a very signifi cant growth of the number of those developing countries that passed that passed this threshold level. Indeed, as we have argued on a number of occasions these are medium developed countries that tend to grow faster than either the least developed countries or the most developed ones (see, e.g., Коротаев and Халтурина 2009 ;Korotayev and Zinkina 2014 ;see also Statistical addendum to Chap. 3 ).…”

The MANBRIC-Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution

“…As regards the 1990s-2020s (the intermediate phase of the Cybernetic Revolution) the question is that the launch of a new innovative breakthrough demands that the developing countries reach the level of the developed ones, and the political component of the world catches up with the economic one (see Grinin andKorotayev 2010, 2014a, b;de Munck 2013, 2014;Korotayev and Zinkina 2014;Korotayev et al 2011aKorotayev et al , b, c, 2012Korotayev et al , 2015.…”