On the spatial spread of rabies among foxes

Murray, J. D.; Stanley, E. Ann; Brown, David L.

doi:10.1098/rspb.1986.0078

Cited by 279 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…However, we have not been able to discuss the e¡ect of a spatially distributed host population in a manner similar to that of Murray et al (1986) in their studies of European fox rabies, nor have we included any estimate of the e¡ect of asymptomatic infection. Future work will probably be able to type more accurately the rabies viruses extracted from dogs and jackals, although at present they are thought to be identical.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rabies in Zimbabwe: reservoir dogs and the implications for disease control

Rhodes

Atkinson

Anderson

et al. 1998

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B

117

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Using detailed ¢eld study observations of the side-striped jackal (Canis adustus) and a simple stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of the virus and host demography, we discuss the epidemiology of rabies virus infection in the jackal population of Zimbabwe. Of the two jackal species in Zimbabwe, the other being the black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas), the bulk of noti¢ed rabies cases are in side-striped jackals. Speci¢cally, we show that the side-striped jackal population itself does not seem able to support rabies infection endemically, i.e. without frequent reintroduction from outside sources of infection. We argue that this is probably because the overall average jackal population density is too low to maintain the chain of infection. This study suggests that the disease is regularly introduced to jackals by rabid dogs from populations associated with human settlements. Given the rapidly rising dog population in Zimbabwe, estimates are derived of the future incidence of jackal rabies based on di¡erent dog-vaccination scenarios.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…No regular, accurate census ¢gures are available, but in 1954 an authoritative source put the dog population at around 195 000 (Adamson 1954), and in 1986, Brooks (1990 estimated the dog population to be 1.3 million.…”

Section: Dogs As a Reservoir For Rabies Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rabies in Zimbabwe: reservoir dogs and the implications for disease control

Rhodes

Atkinson

Anderson

et al. 1998

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B

117

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“…A second classical approach describes spatially extended subpopulations. In this, the geographic spread of an epidemic can be analyzed as a reaction-diffusion process [10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Small World Effect in an Epidemiological Model

Kupennan¹,

Abramson²

2011

The Structure and Dynamics of Networks

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A model for the spread of an infection is analyzed for different population structures. The interactions within the population are described by small world networks, ranging from ordered lattices to random graphs. For the more ordered systems, there is a fluctuating endemic state of low infection. At a finite value of the disorder of the network, we find a transition to self-sustained oscillations in the size of the infected subpopulation.

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“…Coexistence may be possible only in habitats that include the biting-insect vector of malaria. None of these examples of vector-borne disease, and only a few direct-contact epidemics, have been modeled as explicit dynamical processes in a two dimensional space (see Bartholomew, 1983;Murray et al, 1986). …”

Section: Vector-borne Diseasementioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial analysis of vector-borne disease: A four-species model

Szymanski

Caraco

1994

Evol Ecol

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Disease can influence a host population's dynamics directly or indirectly through effects on the host's interactions with competitors and exploiters. We present a stochastic, spatially explicit model for the epidemiological landscape of a vector-borne disease. Two host species, of unequal competitive strength, are attacked by a selective parasite; the parasite serves as a vector for a pathogen. We emphasize the importance of the ecological stencil, the local area where ecological interactions govern a site's species composition. We point out how parallel computing can efficiently employ the geometry of the stencil's local transitions to predict large-scale spatio-temporal patterns of the model community. IntroductionSpatial heterogeneity in abiotic factors and biotic processes often generates patterns in population dynamics and the resulting attributes of ecological communities. Despite a long-standing recognition of the significance of spatial variation, analytical and computational models of spatially explicit, multispecies interactions have only recently influenced community theory (e.g. Hastings, 1990;Kareiva, 1990). We develop a spatially explicit model for the epidemiological landscape of a vector-borne disease. We focus on the "ecological stencil", the local area where ecological interactions govern the species composition at any specific location. Simulation of the local transition probabilities defining the stencil will predict large-scale spatio-temporal patterns of the model community.We first mention a few examples of vector-borne disease. Then we present a model for the dispersal-mortality dynamics of two competing host species, a pathogen that infects the hosts, and a parasite (on the hosts) that serves as a vector for the pathogen. Using a simplified version of the model, we show how variation in the size of the ecological stencil can influence "quasi-stationary" abundances of species competing in a probabilistic density-dependent manner. We briefly comment on the computational requirements for implementing the model efficiently (e.g. Sinharoy and Szymanski, 1993). We outline a series of applications of the model; these include spatially explicit analyses of ecological dispersal, the spread of an epidemic, and cultural diffusion of information. Finally, we consider how our model might provide spatial representations of evolutionary processes. Vector-borne diseasePathogens can influence a host's birth and death rates directly (e.g. Anderson, 1991), or indirectly through effects on the host's interactions with competitors and exploiters (e.g. Hochberg et al., 1990; Schall, in press). Ecological models of epidemics generally assume that a pathogen is directly transmitted when an infective host contacts a susceptible host individual. Recently, however, more attention has been directed to vector-borne diseases where individual parasites exploit many host individuals and consequently can transport a pathogen

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On the spatial spread of rabies among foxes

Cited by 279 publications

References 9 publications

Rabies in Zimbabwe: reservoir dogs and the implications for disease control

Rabies in Zimbabwe: reservoir dogs and the implications for disease control

Small World Effect in an Epidemiological Model

Spatial analysis of vector-borne disease: A four-species model

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