On the relationship between the environmental history and the epidemiological situation of Argentine hemorrhagic fever

Abstract

The aim of this work was to establish the relationship between different Argentine hemorrhagic fever (AHF) epidemiological situations found at different sites and the related large-scale environmental conditions. Large-scale environmental records (vegetation index, temperature, precipitation and elevation) were obtained from a series of monthly NOAA satellite images and global databases considered suitable for modeling climatic and other environmental determinants of large-scale biogeographical regions. The temporal variation in vegetation for cycles of winter-summer showed a greater variation in the nonendemic region than in the other two regions. On the other hand, the average of the temporal variation in precipitation in cycles of spring-autumn was more different in the historic region than in the other two regions, and land surface temperatures in cycles of spring-autumn showed differences between the epidemic region and the other two regions. We found good separation among the epidemic, historic and nonendemic sites, with the greatest difference found between epidemic and nonendemic sites. The classification of sites showed a tendency for grouping according to the epidemiological situation, but there was some variation. It seems possible to establish a close relationship between the state of AHF incidence and the environmental history of sites suggesting the possibility of predicting epidemiological behavior using environmental conditions derived from satellite data.

Mapping Monkeypox Transmission Risk through Time and Space in the Congo Basin

“…Additionally, some species of rodents susceptible to MPXV infection (e.g., species of the genera Funisciurus , Heliosciurus and Cricetomys ) can be found at the margins between human communities and rainforest in DRC [8], [9]. Studies on the rodent hosts of other zoonoses have shown that products from satellite imagery such as NDVI are associated with their population densities and virus prevalence in them [65], [66]. Similarly, the host(s) of MPXV could be responding to changes in environmental variables associated with NDVI (vegetation health, phenology, biomass, etc.)…”

Spatio-temporal variability of NDVI–precipitation over southernmost South America: possible linkages between climate signals and epidemics

“…Grass, sorghum, corn, sunflower and a few ombú or algarrobo trees dominate there. In the Pampa, flooding can be severe and Argentina hemorrhagic fever (AHF) is endemic (Polop et al 2008) within a humid environment. Cases of hantivirus (Porcasi et al 2005) and hydatidosis (Lamberti et al 1999) have also been recorded there.…”

“…The centers of lead NDVI modes are given to compare easily with disease-prone areas. It is interesting to note that Argentine hemorrhagic fever (AHF), as identified by Polop et al (2008), prevails where the NDVI modes 10 and 5 are found. Mode 10 is also in a zone where hantivirus dominates and can include preferred areas for rodents' habitats and reservoirs of zoonoses (Sergio Sosa-Estani et al 2001, Porcasi et al 2005 (Lamberti et al 1999), a region covered by mode 10.…”

Effective Population Size Differences in Calomys musculinus, the Host of Junín Virus: Their Relationship with the Epidemiological History of Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever

“…5,6 The endemic zone consists of an epidemic (E) zone, characterized by the continuous presence of human cases with a mean incidence greater than 2.0/10,000 inhabitants, and a historic (H) zone, with a mean incidence of less than 2.0/10,000 inhabitants. [7][8][9] When the disease appears in a new area, its incidence among the human population (and the proportion of infected rodents) remains high for 5-10 years and then gradually declines to only sporadic cases. 7,10 In zoonotic diseases, factors that influence the connections between susceptible and infected hosts are important for their transmission and maintenance.…”

“…Besides gene flow, several authors suggested that for the horizontal transmission of JUNV among rodents to occur, a threshold population density of infected hosts and a given proportion of susceptible juveniles are necessary. 3,8,16 Polop et al, 8,9 based on differences in rodent densities and large-scale environmental variables, hypothesized that in the E zone environmental conditions would allow the establishment of large host demes connected by high levels of gene flow. This would favor virus maintenance within populations and its transmission among them.…”