Mapping Monkeypox Transmission Risk through Time and Space in the Congo Basin

Abstract

Monkeypox is a major public health concern in the Congo Basin area, with changing patterns of human case occurrences reported in recent years. Whether this trend results from better surveillance and detection methods, reduced proportions of vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated human populations, or changing environmental conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to examine potential correlations between environment and transmission of monkeypox events in the Congo Basin. We created ecological niche models based on human cases reported in the Congo Basin by the World Health Organization at the end of the smallpox eradication campaign, in relation to remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets from the same time period. These models predicted independent spatial subsets of monkeypox occurrences with high confidence; models were then projected onto parallel environmental datasets for the 2000s to create present-day monkeypox suitability maps. Recent trends in human monkeypox infection are associated with broad environmental changes across the Congo Basin. Our results demonstrate that ecological niche models provide useful tools for identification of areas suitable for transmission, even for poorly-known diseases like monkeypox.

A Cross-Sectional Serosurvey of Anti-Orthopoxvirus Antibodies in Central and Western Africa

“…Further studies should ideally be multidisciplinary, combining serological monitoring, clinical epidemiology, and human anthropology to complement reservoir, ecology, and climate studies. This way, the disciplines can be synergized to increase our understanding of, and possibly even predict and prevent, spill-over events [ 16 , 17 , 18 ].…”

“…Rodents, such as squirrels of the Funisciurus and Heliociurus genera, are thought to be the reservoir of the virus and the likely source of human disease [ 13 , 14 ]. Transmission into the human population is hypothesized to occur through hunting and preparation of food from infected species [ 15 ] while subsequent human-to-human transmission can occur via saliva and respiratory excretions or contact with lesion exudate and crust material [ 9 , 16 , 17 , 18 ]. The ecological factors that influence host distribution and viral emergence are not completely understood [ 11 , 16 ].…”

Potential distributions of Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis causing anthrax in Africa

“…Ecological niche modeling is a correlative approach that uses georeferenced occurrence data and environmental variables to identify the geographic distribution of environments suitable for a species of interest [32]. This approach has been used to anticipate potential distributions of multiple pathogens at global and regional scales [33][34][35], including previous anthrax investigations [36][37][38][39][40][41][42].…”

Vaccinating against monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

“…Cases are often not followed to outcome; thus, this does not represent a fatality rate. (B) Distribution of monkeypox cases and deaths in the DRC from 1996 to 2015 (Nakazawa et al, 2013). …”