On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (&lt;i&gt;Gadus morhua&lt;/i&gt;) using statistical temperature forecasts

Planque, Benjamin; Fox, Clive; Saunders, MA; Rockett, P

doi:10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1211

Cited by 28 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Planque et al, 2003), an exercise whose results are driven mainly by the recruitment assumption. However, improving estimates of North Sea cod recruitment for use within short-term projections is unlikely to have much benefit in conserving the North Sea cod stock or for setting quotas since 1-year olds contribute very little to landings.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of climate change for the management of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua)

Kell

Pilling

O’Brien

2005

ICES Journal of Marine Science

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Kell, L. T., Pilling, G. M., and O'Brien, C. M. 2005. Implications of climate change for the management of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua). e ICES Journal of Marine Science, 62: 1483e1491.Robustness of both short-term stock biomass recovery and longer-term sustainable management strategies to different plausible climatic change scenarios were evaluated for North Sea cod (Gadus morhua), where climate was assumed to impact growth and recruitment. In the short term, climate change had little effect on stock recovery, which depends instead upon reducing fishing effort to allow existing year classes to survive to maturity. In the longer term, climate change has greater effects on stock status, but higher yields and biomass can be expected if fishing mortality is reduced. Incorporating environmental covariates in stock assessment predictions will not achieve sustainable resource use. The implications of climate change for biological reference points depend upon the mechanism through which temperature acts on recruitment, i.e. on juvenile survival or carrying capacity. It is not possible to distinguish between these processes with stock assessment data sets alone. However, this study indicates that reference points based on fishing mortality appear more robust to uncertainty than those based on biomass. Ideally, simpler management procedures are required that meet pre-agreed management objectives and are robust to uncertainty about the true dynamics.Crown

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of climate change for the management of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua)

Kell

Pilling

O’Brien

2005

ICES Journal of Marine Science

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“…Similarly, a report in 2005 from the Alfred Wagner Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven based on readings taken at the Biological Institute on Heligoland since 1962, revealed that an increase of 1.1% in the water temperature of the North Sea over the past 40 years had seen a sharp reduction in the cod population (Fishing News, 11/2/05, p. 2;cf. Brander and Drinkwater, 2005;Drinkwater, 2002;Planque et al, 2003).…”

Section: Empirical Dimensionmentioning

confidence: 98%

New cod war of words: ‘Cod is God’ versus ‘sod the cod’—Two opposed discourses on the North Sea Cod Recovery Programme

Gray¹,

Hatchard²,

Daw³

et al. 2008

Fisheries Research

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“…Some of the publications (e.g., Planque et al 2003;) explicitly mention applicability of their models for management purposes. It is difficult to decide whether or not the results of the reviewed models have as yet produced different management decisions.…”

Section: Overview Of Published Models Worldwidementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lluch-Cota & Ponce-Díaz 2000, INP 2000, MacKenzie & Köster 2004 H. et al 1997, T. & L. 2005, Planque et al 2003Field et al 2001 Fig. 2 Combined fisheries-climate models considered in the present review and their global distribution; H. et al 1997: Higgins et al 1997; T. and L. 2005: Tolimieri and Levin 2005; J. et al 2005: Jacobson et al 2005; not shown: Klyashtorin (2001) various clupeid stocks in Atlantic and Pacific Reviewed fishery models incorporating EV or CV by model type and species Model type Species SRA…”

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confidence: 97%

Environmental variability and fisheries: what can models do?

Keyl

Wolff

2007

Rev Fish Biol Fisheries

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This review is based on 58 climatefisheries models published over the last 28 years that describe the impacts of fishery pressure and environmental variability on populations and ecosystems and include basic principles of population dynamics. It points out that the incorporation of environmental factors in fishery models has already been done and is of great importance for future models used in the assessment of marine resources. The work is guided by the questions to what extent have these models a) enhanced our understanding of the interrelationships between the environment, the fishery and the state of the exploited resources and b) helped to improve the prediction of population dynamics and the assessment of marine resources. For each of the six most commonly used model categories a case study is critically analyzed. The problems of ''breaking relationships'' between environmental factors and the biological response used in models, the trade-off between model complexity (realism) and simplicity (data availability) and the potential of multivariate climate indices for forecasting ecosystem states and for use as proxies for combined models are discussed, as are novel non-linear and spatially explicit modeling approaches. Approaches differ in terms of model complexity, use of linear or non-linear equations, number of parameters, forecast time horizon and type of resource modelled. A majority of the models were constructed for fish and invertebrate stocks of the northeast Pacific and the epicontinental seas of the Atlantic, reflecting the advancement of fisheries science in these regions. New, in parts highly complex models and sophisticated approaches were identified. The reviewed studies demonstrate that the performance of fished stocks can better be described if environmental or climatic variability is incorporated into the fisheries models. We conclude that due to the already available knowledge, the greatly enhanced computer power, new methods and recent findings of large-scale climatic/oceanographic cycles, fisheries modeling should progress greatly in the coming years.

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On the prediction of short term changes in the recruitment of North Sea cod (<i>Gadus morhua</i>) using statistical temperature forecasts

Cited by 28 publications

References 36 publications

Implications of climate change for the management of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua)

Implications of climate change for the management of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua)

New cod war of words: ‘Cod is God’ versus ‘sod the cod’—Two opposed discourses on the North Sea Cod Recovery Programme

Environmental variability and fisheries: what can models do?

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