On the Physical Basis for the Numerical Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal Temperatures in the Troposphere-Ocean-Continent System

Adem, Julián

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1964)092<0091:otpbft>2.3.co;2

Cited by 71 publications

(49 citation statements)

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“…Ratcliff and Murray (1970) discussed the lag association between the North Atlantic SST and the European surface pressure. Adem (1964; claimed that the SST anomaly provides useful information on the monthly forecasts. The groups of long-range forecasting in China discussed the lag association between the Kuroshio SST and the rainfall in the eastern part of China.…”

Section: (A) Tropics In Situmentioning

confidence: 99%

Essay on Dynamical Long-Range Forecasts of Atmospheric Circulation

Miyakoda

Chao

1982

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The feasibility of monthly and seasonal forecasts is considered. 'The gross features of departures of meteorological variables from climatology (anomalies) are the targets of forecasts, and the anomalies can be divided into two modes, i.e., free modes and forced modes. The free modes are the anomalies that are predicted under the specification of climatological external forcings for the surface temperature, that are free from the anomalous forcings, whereas the forced modes are the anomalies that correspond to the anomalous components of external forcings. The GCM (general circulation model) is, in some cases, capable of predicting the free mode at least one month ahead (particularly the most extraordinary blocking event in January, 1977), and is, in other cases, marginal. However, the capability could be increased further by improving the GCM. In addition, recent studies have revealed that there are growing evidences for the feasibility of prediction of forced modes over the United States through the teleconnection process from the sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Pacific.Yet the GCM approach is expensive and may be limited in improving mathematical accuracy, to a satisfactory extent. As a remedy, the possibility of anomaly models are being investigated.

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Section: (A) Tropics In Situmentioning

confidence: 99%

Essay on Dynamical Long-Range Forecasts of Atmospheric Circulation

Miyakoda

Chao

1982

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…In the experiments reported here, we use the thermodynamic climate model (TCM), which is described in detail in previous works (Adem 1964, 1965, 1970, 1979, 1991, Adem et al 2000. The TCM consists of an atmospheric layer of about 10 km thickness, which includes a single variable horizontal cloud layer, an oceanic mixed layer of 60 m in depth and a continental layer of negligible depth.…”

Section: Thermodynamic Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of the surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years of the Little Ice Age using a thermodynamic model

Mendoza¹,

Mendoza²,

Garduño³

et al. 2010

Clim. Res.

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“…However, the two terms involving the winds must be transformed in two important respects. First, the predictions are made for a rectangular grid array of 512 points on a polar-stereographic projection whose X-axis points along the 10°E meridian and ½-axis along the 80°W meridian (Adem, 1964). Therefore, we must transform the eastward (º) and northward (») directed wind components to corresponding components º and »; directed along the positive X-and ½-axes respectively.…”

Section: Appendix a ¹He Parametrization Of The Precipitation Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the seasonal effect of orbital variations on the climates of the next 4000 years

Adem

1996

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract. A northern hemisphere thermodynamic climate model is used to compute the effect of the insolation anomalies due to orbital variations in the climates for the next 4000 years. Berger's mean monthly anomalies of insolation are used in the computations, which are carried out for 1000, 2000, 3000 and 4000 years after present (kyears AP). The numerical simulations show that in the climates of the next 4000 years, due to the effect of the orbital variations, springs and summers will be increasingly dryer and falls and winters wetter than the present climate.

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On the Physical Basis for the Numerical Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal Temperatures in the Troposphere-Ocean-Continent System

Cited by 71 publications

References 0 publications

Essay on Dynamical Long-Range Forecasts of Atmospheric Circulation

Essay on Dynamical Long-Range Forecasts of Atmospheric Circulation

Simulation of the surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years of the Little Ice Age using a thermodynamic model

On the seasonal effect of orbital variations on the climates of the next 4000 years

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