Simulation of the surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years of the Little Ice Age using a thermodynamic model

Mendoza, V. M.; Mendoza, B.; Garduño, René; Adem, Julián

doi:10.3354/cr00938

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…This differential, based on the median year for each of these two extreme temporal temperature estimates, represents an average increase of ~0.0645˚C per decade, which was the same as the IPCC (2013:5) increase of 0.85˚C between 1880 and 2012 (0.0644˚C per decade). Although these two estimates agree, the IPCC (2013) and Mendoza et al (2010) values are global and Northern Hemisphere averages, respectively, and do not account for local deviations in climate. A climate reconstruction for interior Alaska found that average annual temperatures were ~2.2˚C below the 1961 -90 average during the early 1800s (Jacoby and D'Arrigo, 1995).…”

Section: Interpretation Of Chronologymentioning

confidence: 84%

“…The continued increase and more varied RWI values during the late 19th and early 20th centuries or second segment of the chronology than occurred earlier could signify that climate evapotranspiration demand created by ongoing atmospheric warming was beginning to exceed the moisture supply. Occurrence of the "Modern Solar Minimum" (Mendoza et al, 2010) may have dampened RWI variation during the second segment of the chronology through cooler temperatures, judging by the distinctive increase in variation after 1930 (Fig. 5B).…”

Section: Interpretation Of Chronologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…5B) roughly corresponded with the occurrence of the Dalton Solar Minimum. If precipitation levels were similar among years in the first segment of the chronology (e.g., Mendoza et al, 2010), it could be concluded that colder conditions created by reduced solar radiation constrained tree-ring growth beyond the already cool conditions of the Little Ice Age. The last of the smallest RWI values during the first segment of the chronology occurred in 1816 and 1817, which was directly after the Tambora volcanic eruption in 1815 (Stothers, 1984).…”

Section: Concurrent Environmental Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Episodic and Systematic Tree Ring-Width Variation (AD 1763–2013) in the Takhini Valley, Southwest Yukon, Canada

Strong¹

2017

ARCTIC

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A tree-ring analysis of 764 western white spruce (Picea albertiana) in the Takhini Valley of southwest Yukon was conducted to assess short- and long-term variation in growth and local climate. The resulting chronology spanned the period from AD 1763 to 2013. A polynomial regression (R = 0.720, p < 0.001) indicated that the pre-1840 segment of the chronology had below-normal tree ring-width index (RWI) values (average 0.64, with modest variation), but the subsequent segment had greater variation and a steady increase in RWI values (average 0.89) until ~1920. After 1930, RWI values began to increase again (average 1.06) with 51% more variation than had previously occurred. Peak RWI values after 1930 were double those of the early 1800s. RWI values were uncorrelated with air temperature variables (except September minima), but weakly and positively correlated (r < 0.35) with precipitation variables. RWI values were moderately correlated with annual heat-moisture index values (r = −0.415, p < 0.001), although more strongly with RWI values less than 1.1 (R = −0.631, p < 0.001). Therefore, the RWI chronology was interpreted from an ecological moisture-balance perspective, with possible long-term temperature changes estimated from archival sources. The latter suggested a 2.1˚ – 3.1˚C rise since the early 1800s. Extreme RWI values and portions of the chronology were associated with known environmental events.

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Section: Interpretation Of Chronologymentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Interpretation Of Chronologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Concurrent Environmental Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Episodic and Systematic Tree Ring-Width Variation (AD 1763–2013) in the Takhini Valley, Southwest Yukon, Canada

Strong¹

2017

ARCTIC

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“…The TCM is a one-layer model (the troposphere) that has been integrated only in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between ~ 12º and 90º and has been used to simulate past (Adem, 1981a, b;Mendoza et al 2010), present (Adem, 1982) and future (Mendoza et el., 2016) climate changes of the Earth, as well as for monthly and seasonal forecast of temperature and precipitation (Adem et al, 2000). The first version of the model was global but one-dimensional, with latitude and time as independent variables; this version was used to explain the zonally averaged seasonal temperature in the troposphere, the position and intensity of the tropospheric jet and to formulate a method for seasonal forecast based on the storage of thermal energy in the ocean (Adem, 1963).…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermodynamic simulation of the seasonal cycle of temperature, pressure and ice caps on Mars

Mendoza

Garduño

et al. 2020

ATM

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We present a thermodynamic model to simulate the atmospheric temperature and pressure, the regolith temperature and the polar CO 2 ice caps vertical thickness and horizontal extent of Mars. This is done using the temperatures of the atmosphere and regolith for each Martian day of the year, determined from the thermodynamic equation. Assuming a CO 2 atmosphere, we calculate its emission spectrum using the spectral calculator E-Trans with the HITRAN database (E-Trans/HITRAN), resulting in only a band at 15 mm and the rest transparent, through which the radiation emitted by the regolith and ice caps (considered as black bodies) goes toward space. We also include the solar radiation extinction and longwave emission of atmospheric dust. The equation calculates the energy balance between the absorbed solar radiation and the outgoing longwave radiation, incorporating also the latent heat released by CO 2 condensation, the sensible heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere, the latent heat flux due to the CO 2 ice sublimation and the heat exchange between the surface regolith layer and its lower layers. The atmospheric planetary scale horizontal turbulent heat transport is parameterized with an exchange coefficient, which is an order of magnitude smaller than that employed in the terrestrial troposphere. Considering a long-time average, the regolith vertical temperature profile is explicitly found using the thermal inertia including conductivity; its temperature regulation is achieved through the thermal conduction from the surface during the warm season. This stored energy goes back to the surface during the cold season. Our model simulates the seasonal variation of the polar ice caps and consequently of the surface atmospheric pressure through the CO 2 mass balance between them. Finally, it is explicitly shown that the amplitude of the global seasonal pressure cycle is modulated by a local thermal-orographic effect, which increases (decreases) this amplitude in the low (high) regions, which agrees with the observations of the Viking Landers 1 and 2, and the Mars Climate Data Base. Our prediction for Hellas Planitia gives an amplification factor of up to 2.15, coinciding with other authors.

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Solar activity cloudiness effect on NH warming for 1980–2095

Mendoza

Garduño

et al. 2016

Advances in Space Research

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Simulation of the surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years of the Little Ice Age using a thermodynamic model

Cited by 5 publications

References 32 publications

Episodic and Systematic Tree Ring-Width Variation (AD 1763–2013) in the Takhini Valley, Southwest Yukon, Canada

Episodic and Systematic Tree Ring-Width Variation (AD 1763–2013) in the Takhini Valley, Southwest Yukon, Canada

Thermodynamic simulation of the seasonal cycle of temperature, pressure and ice caps on Mars

Solar activity cloudiness effect on NH warming for 1980–2095

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