On the estimation of heat-intensity and heat-duration effects in time series models of temperature-related mortality in Stockholm, Sweden

Rocklöv, Joacim; Barnett, Adrian; Woodward, Alistair

doi:10.1186/1476-069x-11-23

Cited by 55 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Heat wave effects were shown to amount to a stable and statistically significant 8.1-11.6% increase in excess deaths per heat wave day 27 ; in more than 40 American cities, heat wave mortality risk increased 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. 28 The longest heat waves were associated in Spain with daily mortality.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Hot Spot: Impact of July 2011 Heat Wave in Southern Italy (Apulia) on Cardiovascular Disease Assessed by Emergency Medical Service and Telemedicine Support

Brunetti

Amoruso

Dellegrottaglie³

et al. 2014

Telemedicine and e-Health

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Hot Spot: Impact of July 2011 Heat Wave in Southern Italy (Apulia) on Cardiovascular Disease Assessed by Emergency Medical Service and Telemedicine Support

Brunetti

Amoruso

Dellegrottaglie³

et al. 2014

Telemedicine and e-Health

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“…In a multicity U.S. study modeling temperature as a spline and heat wave as an indicator variable, Gasparrini and Armstrong (2011) and Barnett et al (2012) found added heat-wave effects of 0–7% in the United States, with the greatest added heat-wave effect when the temperature spline had the fewest df, as did Rocklov et al (2012) in Sweden. This finding can be explained by the fact that intensity and duration of extreme heat are correlated, so estimates of heat-wave effects diminish as the independent effects of extreme heat are allowed to be more intense in the model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat, Heat Waves, and Hospital Admissions among the Elderly in the United States, 1992–2006

Gronlund

Zanobetti²,

Schwartz³

et al. 2014

Environ Health Perspect

230

159

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Background: Heat-wave frequency, intensity, and duration are increasing with global climate change. The association between heat and mortality in the elderly is well documented, but less is known regarding associations with hospital admissions.Objectives: Our goal was to determine associations between moderate and extreme heat, heat waves, and hospital admissions for nonaccidental causes among Medicare beneficiaries ≥ 65 years of age in 114 cities across five U.S. climate zones.Methods: We used Medicare inpatient billing records and city-specific data on temperature, humidity, and ozone from 1992 through 2006 in a time-stratified case-crossover design to estimate the association between hospitalization and moderate [90th percentile of apparent temperature (AT)] and extreme (99th percentile of AT) heat and heat waves (AT above the 95th percentile over 2–8 days). In sensitivity analyses, we additionally considered confounding by ozone and holidays, different temperature metrics, and alternate models of the exposure–response relationship.Results: Associations between moderate heat and hospital admissions were minimal, but extreme heat was associated with a 3% (95% CI: 2%, 4%) increase in all-cause hospital admissions over the subsequent 8 days. In cause-specific analyses, extreme heat was associated with increased hospitalizations for renal (15%; 95% CI: 9%, 21%) and respiratory (4%; 95% CI: 2%, 7%) diseases, but not for cardiovascular diseases. An added heat-wave effect was observed for renal and respiratory admissions.Conclusion: Extreme heat is associated with increased hospital admissions, particularly for renal causes, among the elderly in the United States.Citation: Gronlund CJ, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Wellenius GA, O’Neill MS. 2014. Heat, heat waves, and hospital admissions among the elderly in the United States, 1992–2006. Environ Health Perspect 122:1187–1192; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206132

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“…To study additional effects occurring from the duration of temperature extremes (27) (the duration of heat and cold waves) we created a cold wave and a heat wave duration variable, considering days in sequence below and above the 2nd and 98th percentile of temperature, respectively. This variable was given the value 1 on the second day of the cold or heat wave, 2 on the third and so on.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Susceptibility to mortality related to temperature and heat and cold wave duration in the population of Stockholm County, Sweden

Rocklöv

Forsberg

Ebi

et al. 2014

Global Health Action

123

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BackgroundAmbient temperatures can cause an increase in mortality. A better understanding is needed of how health status and other factors modify the risk associated with high and low temperatures, to improve the basis of preventive measures. Differences in susceptibility to temperature and to heat and cold wave duration are relatively unexplored.ObjectivesWe studied the associations between mortality and temperature and heat and cold wave duration, stratified by age and individual and medical factors.MethodsDeaths among all residents of Stockholm County between 1990 and 2002 were linked to discharge diagnosis data from hospital admissions, and associations were examined using the time stratified case-crossover design. Analyses were stratified by gender, age, pre-existing disease, country of origin, and municipality level wealth, and adjusted for potential confounding factors.ResultsThe effect on mortality by heat wave duration was higher for lower ages, in areas with lower wealth, for hospitalized patients younger than age 65. Odds were elevated among females younger than age 65, in groups with a previous hospital admission for mental disorders, and in persons with previous cardiovascular disease. Gradual increases in summer temperatures were associated with mortality in people older than 80 years, and with mortality in groups with a previous myocardial infarction and with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the population younger than 65 years. During winter, mortality was associated with a decrease in temperature particularly in men and with the duration of cold spells for the population older than 80. A history of hospitalization for myocardial infarction increased the odds associated with cold temperatures among the population older than 65. Previous mental disease or substance abuse increased the odds of death among the population younger than 65.ConclusionTo increase effectiveness, we suggest preventive efforts should not assume susceptible groups are the same for warm and cold days and heat and cold waves, respectively.

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On the estimation of heat-intensity and heat-duration effects in time series models of temperature-related mortality in Stockholm, Sweden

Cited by 55 publications

References 20 publications

Hot Spot: Impact of July 2011 Heat Wave in Southern Italy (Apulia) on Cardiovascular Disease Assessed by Emergency Medical Service and Telemedicine Support

Hot Spot: Impact of July 2011 Heat Wave in Southern Italy (Apulia) on Cardiovascular Disease Assessed by Emergency Medical Service and Telemedicine Support

Heat, Heat Waves, and Hospital Admissions among the Elderly in the United States, 1992–2006

Susceptibility to mortality related to temperature and heat and cold wave duration in the population of Stockholm County, Sweden

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