On the detection of precipitation dependence on temperature

Zhou, Yu; Luo, Ming; Leung, Yee

doi:10.1002/2016gl068811

“…Although land is warming faster than the global mean, allowing faster rises in saturation specific humidity, this effect is not expected to enhance moisture increases over land since the ultimate source of moisture is primarily the oceans which are warming closer to the global mean rate. Other studies have corroborated this super-CC intensification 25,18,83 , albeit with potentially low statistical certainty due to short record lengths 84 . Evidence has also been found, mainly in tropical locations, for a strengthening of precipitation systems and significant effects of warming on peak intensities in urban areas 85,86 , with intensification of peak intensities and frequencies of hourly extreme precipitation tending to occur downwind of urban areas in mid-latitude locations such as the US Mid-west 87 .…”

Section: Changes To Extreme Rainfall Intensitymentioning

confidence: 98%

Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Fowler

¹

,

Lenderink

²

,

Prein

³

et al. 2021

Nat Rev Earth Environ

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Heavy rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate generally consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture, for accumulation periods from hours to days.• In some regions, high-resolution modeling, observed trends and observed temperature dependencies indicate stronger increases in short-duration, sub-daily, extreme rainfall intensities, up to twice what would be expected from atmospheric moisture increases alone.• Stronger local increases in short-duration extreme rainfall intensities are related to convective cloud feedbacks but their relevance to climate change is uncertain due to modulation by changes to temperature stratification and large-scale atmospheric circulation• The evidence is unclear whether storm size will increase or decrease with warming; however, increases in rainfall intensity and the spatial footprint of the storm can compound to give significant increases in the total rainfall during an event.• Evidence is emerging that sub-daily rainfall intensification is related to an intensification of flash flooding, at least locally. This will have serious implications for flash flooding on much of the planet and requires urgent climate-change adaptation measures.

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“…326 This is corroborated by observed scalings up to three times the rate expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation for multiple regions, [329][330][331][332] albeit with low statistical certainty. 333,334 The relevance of present-day relationships to climate change remains questionable, 335,336 although is improved by considering scaling with dewpoint temperature, which reduces dependence on dynamical factors. 329,337,338 Increased frequency of rainfall events above a fixed intensity threshold 339 primarily reflects the less severe precipitation events intensifying above the threshold, so intensification of heavy rainfall in weather systems remains the dominant mechanism.…”

Section: Changes In Characteristics Of Precipitation and Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Allan

¹

,

Barlow

²

,

Byrne

³

et al. 2020

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.

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“…326 This is corroborated by observed scalings up to three times the rate expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation for multiple regions, [329][330][331][332] albeit with low statistical certainty. 333,334 The relevance of present-day relationships to climate change remains questionable, 335,336 although is improved by considering scaling with dewpoint temperature, which reduces dependence on dynamical factors. 329,337,338 Increased frequency of rainfall events above a fixed intensity threshold 339 primarily reflects the less severe precipitation events intensifying above the threshold, so intensification of heavy rainfall in weather systems remains the dominant mechanism.…”

Section: Changes In Characteristics Of Precipitation and Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Allan¹

2020

Preprint

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Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.

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On the detection of precipitation dependence on temperature

Cited by 5 publications

References 37 publications

Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

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