Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Fowler, Hayley J.; Lenderink, Geert; Prein, Andreas F.; Westra, Seth; Allan, Richard P.; Ban, Nikolina; Barbero, Renaud; Berg, Peter; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Hong, Xiaowei; Guerreiro, Selma B.; Haerter, Jan O.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Lewis, Elizabeth; Schaer, Christoph; Sharma, Ashish; Villarini, Gabriele; Wasko, Conrad; Zhang, Xuebin

doi:10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6

Cited by 411 publications

(319 citation statements)

References 225 publications

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“…These local dynamics produce higher superCC sensitivities in most of the gauges analyzed globally. For instance, excess latent heat released during intense short-duration rainfall may enhance scaling by intensifying upward within-cloud motions (Loriaux et al, 2013), and increases in large-scale moisture convergence producing larger storms (G. Lenderink et al, 2017;Pfahl et al, 2017) but see Fowler et al (2021) for a comprehensive review. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the thermodynamic and dynamic processes governing precipitation extremes at different spatial scales when estimating future changes.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consistent Large‐Scale Response of Hourly Extreme Precipitation to Temperature Variation Over Land

Ali

Fowler

Lenderink

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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Hourly precipitation extremes can intensify with temperature at higher rates than expected from thermodynamic increases explained by the Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) relationship (∼6.5%/K), but local scaling with surface air temperature is highly variable. Here we use daily dew point temperature, a direct proxy of absolute humidity, to estimate at‐gauge local scaling across six macro‐regions for a global data set of over 7,000 hourly precipitation gauges. We find scaling rates from CC to 2 × CC at more than 60% of gauges, peaking in the tropics at a median rate of ∼1.5CC. Moreover, regional scaling rates show surprisingly universal behavior at around CC, with higher scaling in Europe. Importantly for impacts, hourly scaling is persistently higher than scaling for daily extreme precipitation. Our results indicate greater consistency in global scaling than previous work, usually at or above CC, with positive scaling in the (sub)tropics. This demonstrates the relevance of DPT scaling to understanding future changes.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consistent Large‐Scale Response of Hourly Extreme Precipitation to Temperature Variation Over Land

Ali

Fowler

Lenderink

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…These studies have largely focused on future changes in precipitation, with a common finding being that future increases in short-duration precipitation extremes are larger in CPMs compared to coarser resolution climate models [2,32]. In particular, CPMs show evidence of super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling for extreme hourly precipitation intensities in some regions [33][34][35][36][37]. These increases, beyond what are expected from increases in atmospheric moisture alone, may be due to local dynamical feedbacks within storms that are only represented at high resolution.…”

Section: (B) Where Are We?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and outlook for convection-permitting climate modelling

Kendon

Prein

Senior

et al. 2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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108

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Climate projections at very high resolution (kilometre-scale grid spacing) are becoming affordable. These ‘convection-permitting’ models (CPMs), commonly used for weather forecasting, better represent land-surface characteristics and small-scale processes in the atmosphere such as convection. They provide a step change in our understanding of future changes at local scales and for extreme weather events. For short-duration precipitation extremes, this includes capturing local storm feedbacks, which may modify future increases. Despite the major advance CPMs offer, there are still key challenges and outstanding science issues. Heavy rainfall tends to be too intense; there are challenges in representing land-surface processes; sub-kilometre scale processes still need to be parametrized, with existing parametrization schemes often requiring development for use in CPMs; CPMs rely on the quality of lateral boundary forcing and typically do not include ocean-coupling; large CPM ensembles that comprehensively sample future uncertainties are costly. Significant progress is expected over the next few years: scale-aware schemes may improve the representation of unresolved convective updrafts; work is underway to improve the modelling of complex land-surface fluxes; CPM ensemble experiments are underway and methods to synthesize this information with larger coarser-resolution model ensembles will lead to local-scale predictions with more comprehensive uncertainty context for user application. Large-domain (continental or tropics-wide) CPM climate simulations, potentially with additional earth-system processes such as ocean and wave coupling and terrestrial hydrology, are an exciting prospect, allowing not just improved representation of local processes but also of remote teleconnections. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

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“…This is partly due to the concentration of studies on 'peak intensity' changes, the more complex analysis methods necessary to investigate a change in small-scale cloud processes, a lack of consistent analysis methods and a lack of observational datasets to fully evaluate CPMs. Recent observational and CPM studies have enhanced understanding of how these processes interact and how they might affect future extreme rainfall and a full review of our current understanding is provided in Fowler et al [44].…”

Section: Towards Understanding Mechanisms Of Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

Fowler

Ali

Allan

et al. 2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K −1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

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Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Cited by 411 publications

References 225 publications

Consistent Large‐Scale Response of Hourly Extreme Precipitation to Temperature Variation Over Land

Consistent Large‐Scale Response of Hourly Extreme Precipitation to Temperature Variation Over Land

Challenges and outlook for convection-permitting climate modelling

Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

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