On the 11 year solar cycle signature in global total ozone dynamics

Efstathiou, Maria; Varotsos, C.

doi:10.1002/met.1287

Cited by 33 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Local observations at Faraday/Vernadsky show that total ozone increases by about 8 DU between the solar minimum and maximum (Figure 5a,d) during the 21st-23rd solar cycles (sunspot maxima near 1980, 1990, and 2000, Figure 3). This change is about 2.9% of the long-term mean level (~280 DU) and is close to the global estimate of about 3% [74,75]. Despite the qualitative consistency of the phase of the 11-year periodicity in solar activity and local total ozone and close correspondence of the quantitative amplitude estimate to the global data, the wavelet power spectra do not indicate statistical significance of the 11-year period in total ozone over Faraday/Vernadsky (Figure 5b,e).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

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Investigation of the Vertical Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Ozone Using SBUV and Antarctic Ground-Based Measurements and CMIP6 Forcing Data

et al. 2020

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The 11-year solar activity cycle in the vertical ozone distribution over the Antarctic station Faraday/Vernadsky in the Antarctic Peninsula region (65.25° S, 64.27° W) was analyzed using the Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet (SBUV) radiometer data Version 8.6 Merged Ozone Data Sets (MOD) over the 40-year period 1979–2018. The SBUV MOD ozone profiles are presented as partial column ozone in layers with approximately 3-km altitude increments from the surface to the lower mesosphere (1000–0.1 hPa, or 0–64 km). Periodicities in the ozone time series of the layer data were studied using wavelet transforms. A statistically significant signal with a quasi-11-year period consistent with solar activity forcing was found in the lower–middle stratosphere at 22–31 km in ozone over Faraday/Vernadsky, although signals with similar periods were not significant in the total column measurements made by the Dobson spectrophotometer at the site. For comparison with other latitudinal zones, the relative contribution of the wavelet spectral power of the quasi-11-year periods to the 2–33-year period range on the global scale was estimated. While a significant solar activity signal exists in the tropical lower and upper stratosphere and in the lower mesosphere in SBUV MOD, we did not find evidence of similar signals in the ozone forcing data for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In the extratropical lower–middle stratosphere and lower mesosphere, there is a strong hemispheric asymmetry in solar activity–ozone response, which is dominant in the Southern Hemisphere. In general, the results are consistent with other studies and highlight the sensitivity of ozone in the lower–middle stratosphere over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the 11-year solar cycle.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…Global ozone increases with solar activity due to there being greater incoming UV radiation [27,48,51,74,75]. Local observations at Faraday/Vernadsky show that total ozone increases by about 8 DU between the solar minimum and maximum (Figure 5a,d) during the 21st-23rd solar cycles (sunspot maxima near 1980, 1990, and 2000, Figure 3).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the Vertical Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Ozone Using SBUV and Antarctic Ground-Based Measurements and CMIP6 Forcing Data

et al. 2020

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“…namely ozone production, destruction and transport. While ozone concentration in the upper stratosphere (35-50 km) is primary determined by the processes of photochemical creation and destruction, ozone concentration in the lower and middle stratosphere (below 30 km) is strongly affected by transport (Portafaix et al, 2003;Bencherif et al, 2007Bencherif et al, , 2011El-Amraoui et al, 2010). Ozone is formed primarily in tropical regions as a result of a reaction between atmospheric oxygen and the ultraviolet component of incident solar radiation; it is then subsequently transported and distributed to higher latitudes following the Brewer-Dobson circulation (Weber et al, 2011).…”

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confidence: 99%

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

Toihir¹,

Portafaix²,

Sivakumar³

et al. 2018

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract. Long-term variability in ozone trends was assessed over eight Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical sites (Natal, Nairobi, Ascension Island, Java, Samoa, Fiji, Reunion and Irene), using total column ozone data (TCO) and vertical ozone profiles (altitude range 15–30 km) recorded during the period January 1998–December 2012. The TCO datasets were constructed by combination of satellite data (OMI and TOMS) and ground-based observations recorded using Dobson and SAOZ spectrometers. Vertical ozone profiles were obtained from balloon-sonde experiments which were operated within the framework of the SHADOZ network. The analysis in this study was performed using the Trend-Run model. This is a multivariate regression model based on the principle of separating the variations of ozone time series into a sum of several forcings (annual and semi-annual oscillations, QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), ENSO, 11-year solar cycle) that account for most of its variability. The trend value is calculated based on the slope of a normalized linear function which is one of the forcing parameters included in the model. Three regions were defined as follows: equatorial (0–10∘ S), tropical (10–20∘ S) and subtropical (20–30∘ S). Results obtained indicate that ozone variability is dominated by seasonal and quasi-biennial oscillations. The ENSO contribution is observed to be significant in the tropical lower stratosphere and especially over the Pacific sites (Samoa and Java). The annual cycle of ozone is observed to be the most dominant mode of variability for all the sites and presents a meridional signature with a maximum over the subtropics, while semi-annual and quasi-biannual ozone modes are more apparent over the equatorial region, and their magnitude decreases southward. The ozone variation mode linked to the QBO signal is observed between altitudes of 20 and 28 km. Over the equatorial zone there is a strong signal at ∼26 km, where 58 % ±2 % of total ozone variability is explained by the effect of QBO. Annual ozone oscillations are more apparent at two different altitude ranges (below 24 km and in the 27–30 km altitude band) over the tropical and subtropical regions, while the semi-annual oscillations are more significant over the 27–30 km altitude range in the tropical and equatorial regions. The estimated trend in TCO is positive and not significant and corresponds to a variation of ∼1.34±0.50 % decade−1 (averaged over the three regions). The trend estimated within the equatorial region (0–15∘ S) is less than 1 % per decade, while it is assessed at more than 1.5 % decade−1 for all the sites located southward of 17∘ S. With regard to the vertical distribution of trend estimates, a positive trend in ozone concentration is obtained in the 22–30 km altitude range, while a delay in ozone improvement is apparent in the UT–LS (upper troposphere–lower stratosphere) below 22 km. This is especially noticeable at approximately 19 km, where a negative value is observed in the tropical regions.

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“…To investigate whether the CST time-series exhibited long-term power-law and multifractal behavior, we used detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) [22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Temperature Extremes Will Be More Harmful: A New Critical Factor for Improved Forecasts

Varotsos

Mazei

2019

IJERPH

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There is increasing evidence that extreme weather events such as frequent and intense cold spells and heat waves cause unprecedented deaths and diseases in both developed and developing countries. Thus, they require extensive and immediate research to limit the risks involved. Average temperatures in Europe in June–July 2019 were the hottest ever measured and attributed to climate change. The problem, however, of a thorough study of natural climate change is the lack of experimental data from the long past, where anthropogenic activity was then very limited. Today, this problem can be successfully resolved using, inter alia, biological indicators that have provided reliable environmental information for thousands of years in the past. The present study used high-resolution quantitative reconstruction data derived from biological records of Lake Silvaplana sediments covering the period 1181–1945. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a slight temperature change in the past could trigger current or future intense temperature change or changes. Modern analytical tools were used for this purpose, which eventually showed that temperature fluctuations were persistent. That is, they exhibit long memory with scaling behavior, which means that an increase (decrease) in temperature in the past was always followed by another increase (decrease) in the future with multiple amplitudes. Therefore, the increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events due to climate change will be more pronounced than expected. This will affect human well-being and mortality more than that estimated in today’s modeling scenarios. The scaling property detected here can be used for more accurate monthly to decadal forecasting of extreme temperature events. Thus, it is possible to develop improved early warning systems that will reduce the public health risk at local, national, and international levels.

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On the 11 year solar cycle signature in global total ozone dynamics

Cited by 33 publications

References 53 publications

Investigation of the Vertical Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Ozone Using SBUV and Antarctic Ground-Based Measurements and CMIP6 Forcing Data

Investigation of the Vertical Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Ozone Using SBUV and Antarctic Ground-Based Measurements and CMIP6 Forcing Data

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

Future Temperature Extremes Will Be More Harmful: A New Critical Factor for Improved Forecasts

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