On return period and probability of failure in hydrology

Volpi, Elena

doi:10.1002/wat2.1340

Cited by 27 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 63 publications

(114 reference statements)

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“…There is a large body of literature on the need to revise the concept of the return period and on the possible adaptation of this quantity in the context of non-stationary conditions (Cooley 2013, Obeysekera and Salas 2014, Salas and Obeysekera 2014, Volpi 2019. In particular, there are two main approaches to flood return period approximation under non-stationary conditions: (a) using the concept of expected waiting time for the first occurrence of a flood event exceeding the design flood (Salas and Obeysekera 2014), and (b) defining the return period as the time interval in years for which the expected number of exceeding flood events is equal to 1 (Cooley 2013).…”

Section: Resorting To Non-stationary Models For Quantile Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stationary vs non-stationary modelling of flood frequency distribution across northwest England

Hesarkazzazi

Arabzadeh

Hajibabaei

et al. 2021

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Extraordinary flood events occurred recently in northwest England, with several severe floods in Cumbria, Lancashire and the Manchester area in 2004, 2009 and 2015. These clustered extraordinary events have raised the question of whether any changes in the magnitude and frequency of river flows in the region can be detected. For this purpose, the annual maximum series of 39 river gauging stations in the study area are analysed. In particular, non-stationary models that include time, annual rainfall and annual temperature as predictors are investigated. Most records demonstrate a marked non-stationary behaviour and an increase of up to 75% in flood quantile estimates during the study period. Annual rainfall explains the largest proportion of variability in the peak flow series relative to other predictors considered in our study, providing practitioners with a useful framework for updating flood quantile estimates based on the dynamics of this highly accessible and informative climate indicator.

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Section: Resorting To Non-stationary Models For Quantile Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stationary vs non-stationary modelling of flood frequency distribution across northwest England

Hesarkazzazi

Arabzadeh

Hajibabaei

et al. 2021

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…LID solutions are designed to control runoff at the catchment outlet up to a given return period value; the latter is predetermined based on the potential damages occurring as a consequence of system failure. The design procedure to compute discharge quantile , that is, flow discharge characterized by a given return period, T [T] (Volpi, ), usually requires to construct a design storm hyetograph based on local rainfall characteristics and determine net rainfall by estimating hydrological losses and apply appropriate hydrological procedures for computing runoff hydrographs. …”

Section: Mathematical Framework For Peak Discharge Quantile Estimatiomentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Effectiveness of LID Infrastructures for the Attenuation of Urban Flooding at the Catchment Scale

Fiori

Volpi

2020

Water Resources Research

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The efficacy of low-impact development (LID) toward the attenuation of urban flood at the catchment scale is still an unsolved question. This work aims at providing insight into the effectiveness of LID at the catchment scale by a simple hydrological modeling approach that allows for an analytical solution. The paper focuses on LID design, investigating the peak discharge at the catchment outlet as a function of the return period of the rainfall event under unaltered and retrofitted conditions. The model captures the most important effects of LID on flood, that is, the temporal shift and attenuation of water discharge and the decrease of water volume conveyed by the drainage network due to increased hydrological losses. It is found that LID is likely more effective in reducing peak discharge at the local scale, while the effectiveness decreases with increasing catchment size. For some configurations, for example, when retrofit is performed in downstream areas, closer to the outlet, LID may even worsen the flood risk. The effectiveness of LID depends on the combination of several factors, including the fractional area covered by the LID infrastructures, their distribution within the catchment, and their hydraulic properties, as compared with the general hydraulic features of the catchment (network dispersion, detention, lag time, etc.). As a consequence, the LID design should be carried out considering all the relevant scales of the problem, from the local one, at which the LID infrastructure is implemented, to the catchment scale, and the discharge at the outlet in particular, in a comprehensive perspective. Key Points:• We develop a simple hydrological model, based on the IUH framework, to model LID effects on peak discharge quantiles at the catchment scale • We found that LID are effective in reducing urban flooding at the local scale, while effectiveness decreases with increasing catchment size • When retrofit is performed through LID implementation in areas close to the catchment outlet, LID may even worsen the flood risk

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“…It is worth noting that the proposed discharge rate (0.21 m 3 s −1 ) has a return period <2 years ( Figure 9) and therefore is suited for water planning. We recall, however, the well-known limitations of return period assessments and the risk of failure of water resources evaluations based on this hydrologic indicator [86,87].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conjunctive Water Resources Management in Densely Urbanized Karst Areas: A Study in the Sete Lagoas Region, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

et al. 2019

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Headwater catchments store valuable resources of quality water, but their hydraulic response is difficult to assess (model) because they are usually deprived of monitoring stations, namely hydrometric stations. This issue becomes even more pertinent because headwater catchments are ideal for the practice of conjunctive water resources management involving the supply of towns with groundwater and surface water, a solution that can be used to mitigate overexploitation of groundwater resources in densely urbanized and populated areas. In this study, a stepwise approach is presented whereby, in a first stage, a gauged basin was modeled for stream flow using the JAMS J2000 framework, with the purpose to obtain calibrated hydraulic parameters and ecological simulated stream flow records. Having validated the model through a comparison of simulated and measured flows, the simulated record was adjusted to the scale of an ungauged sub-basin, based on a new run of JAMS J2000 using the same hydraulic parameters. At this stage, a second validation of modeled data was accomplished through comparison of the downscaled flow rates with discharge rates assessed by field measurements of flow velocity and water column height. The modeled basin was a portion of Jequitiba River basin, while the enclosed sub-basin was the Marinheiro catchment (state of Minas Gerais, Brazil). The latter is a peri-urban watershed located in the vicinity of Sete Lagoas town, a densely urbanized and populated area. This town uses 15.5 hm3 year−1 of karst groundwater for public water supply, but the renewable resources were estimated to be 6.3 hm3 year−1. The impairment between abstraction and renewable resources lasts for decades, and for that reason the town experiences systemic water table declines and sinkhole development. The present study claims that the storage of quality water in the Marinheiro catchment, in a dam reservoir, would help alleviate the depletion of groundwater resources in the karst aquifer because this catchment could deliver 4.73 hm3 year−1 of quality surface water to the municipality without endangering ecologic flows. The construction of a small dam at the outlet of Marinheiro catchment could also improve aquifer recharge. Presently, the annual recharge in this catchment approaches 1.47 hm3 but could be much larger if the small dam was installed in the water course and the captured stream water managed properly.

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On return period and probability of failure in hydrology

Cited by 27 publications

References 63 publications

Stationary vs non-stationary modelling of flood frequency distribution across northwest England

Stationary vs non-stationary modelling of flood frequency distribution across northwest England

On the Effectiveness of LID Infrastructures for the Attenuation of Urban Flooding at the Catchment Scale

Conjunctive Water Resources Management in Densely Urbanized Karst Areas: A Study in the Sete Lagoas Region, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

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