On periodicities in long term climatic variations near 68° N, 30° E

Abstract

Abstract. It is generally believed that the low-frequency variability of climatic parameters seems to be connected to solar cycles. The principal periodicities are: 11-year (Schwabe), 22-year (Hale), 33-year (Bruckner) and 80–100-year (Gleissberg) cycles. The main heliophysical factors acting on climate, the biosphere and the atmosphere are solar irradiance, the intensity of solar and galactic cosmic rays (relativistic charged particles with energies >500 MeV) changing the cloud cover of the atmosphere, and UV-B-radiation. The 11-year and 80–90-year solar cycles are apparent in solar radiation and galactic cosmic ray trends. At the same time the bidecadal Hale cycle, related to a reversal of the main solar magnetic field direction is practically absent in either solar radiation or galactic cosmic ray variations. Besides, nobody can identify any physical mechanisms by which a reversal in the solar magnetic field direction could influence climate. However, the 22-year cycle has been identified in rather many regional climatic (droughts, rainfall, tree growth near 68° N, 30° E) and temperature records all over the world. We discuss here three possible cause of the bidecadal periodicity in climatic records, one of which is associated with a variation of stardust flux inside the Solar System. The most recent observations by the DUST experiment on board the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the solar magnetic field lost its protective power during the last change of its polarity (the most recent solar maximum), so that the stardust level inside of the Solar System has been enhanced by a factor of three. It is possible that the periodic increases of stardust in the Solar System may influence the amount of extraterrestrial material that falls to the Earth and consequently act on the Earth's atmosphere and climate through alteration of atmospheric transparency and albedo. This material (interstellar dust and/or cometary matter) may also provide nucleation sites and thereby influence precipitation.

Impacts of multi-scale solar activity on climate. Part II: Dominant timescales in decadal-centennial climate variability

“…10. These longer timescales have been found in solar records (Gleissberg, 1965;Sonett, 1982;Feynman and Fougere, 1984;Khramova et al, 2002;Peristykh and Damon, 2003;Kasatkina et al, 2007). The 176-yr timescale is within the timescale range of the observed solar Suess cycle that has a period about 170-260 yrs (e.g., Ogurtsov et al, 2002).…”

A scale space approach for estimating the characteristic feature sizes in hierarchical signals

“…When seeking explanations for these variations, we compare to the solar cycles and the flux density of galactic cosmic radiation that have shown to occur with principal periodicities of 11 (Schwabe), 22 (Hale), 33 (Bruckner) and 80–100 years (Gleissberg) where the connection between the 22‐year cycle is observed to be the strongest one and the 11‐year cycle is not always present (see Kasatkina et al, , and the references therein). Also, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can cause periodicity of period 7.3–8 years (Rogers, ) (cf.…”

“…For comparison, we applied also multitaper spectral analysis to the data (Thomson, ). This method was used also, for example, in Kasatkina et al (). The results are shown in Section S3 of the supporting information.…”

“…Hurrell & Van Loon, ) and is well shown to be present in tree ring based reconstructions at multiple timescales (Esper et al ; Sirén & Hari, ). Over the long term, this type of climatic variability has been shown to correlate with solar cycles (Kasatkina et al ) that influence the flux density of galactic cosmic radiation, which in turn may influence cloudiness and climate patterns, and eventually also influence the properties of tree rings (Dengel et al ). We will apply the scale space multiresolution analysis with size estimation to examine the presence of these periods in the data.…”

The Permutation Test for Testing the Statistical Significance of the Power Spectrum Estimation in Dendrochronological Analysis

“…Recently, in connection with global warming, the tree-ring data are more and more often used for reconstruction of climate and solar variability (Dutilleul and Till, 1992, Helama et al, 2009, Kasatkina et al, 2007, Lindholm et al, 2009, von Lürte, 1991and Rigozo et al, 2007, 2008.…”