A scale space multiresolution feature extraction method is proposed for time series data. The method detects intervals where time series features differ from their surroundings, and it produces a multiresolution analysis of the series as a sum of scale-dependent components. These components are obtained from differences of smooths. The relevant sequence of smoothing levels is determined using derivatives of smooths with respect to the logarithm of the smoothing parameter. As time series are usually noisy, the method uses Bayesian inference to establish the credibility of the components.

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Fire is a major disturbance agent in the boreal forest, influencing many current and future ecosystem conditions and services. Surprisingly few studies have attempted to improve the accuracy of fire-event reconstructions even though the estimates of the occurrence of past fires may be biased, influencing the reliability of the models employing those data (e.g. C stock, cycle). This study aimed to demonstrate how three types of fire proxies – fire scars from tree rings, sedimentary charcoal and, for the first time in this context, fungal spores of Neurospora – can be integrated to achieve a better understanding of past fire dynamics. By studying charcoal and Neurospora from sediment cores from forest hollows, and the fire scars from tree rings in their surroundings in the southern Fennoscandian and western Russian boreal forest, we produced composite fire-event data sets and fire-event frequencies, and estimated fire return intervals. Our estimates show that the fire return interval varied between 126 and 237 years during the last 11,000 years. The highest fire frequency during the 18th–19th century can be associated with the anthropogenic influence. Importantly, statistical tests revealed a positive relationship between other fire event indicators and Neurospora occurrence allowing us to pinpoint past fire events at times when the sedimentary charcoal was absent, but Neurospora were abundant. We demonstrated how fire proxies with different temporal resolution can be linked, providing potential improvements in the reliability of fire history reconstructions from multiple proxies.

Abstract. Forest fires are a key disturbance in boreal forests, and characteristics of fire regimes are among the most important factors explaining the variation in forest structure and species composition. The occurrence of fire is connected with climate, but earlier, mostly local-scale studies in the northern European boreal forests have provided little insight into fire-climate relationship before the modern fire suppression period. Here, we compiled annually resolved fire history, temperature, and precipitation reconstructions from eastern Fennoscandia from the mid-16th century to the end of the 19th century, a period of strong human influence on fires. We used synchrony of fires over the network of 25 fire history reconstructions as a measure of climatic forcing on fires. We examined the relationship between fire occurrence and climate (summer temperature, precipitation, and a drought index summarizing the influence of variability in temperature and precipitation) across temporal scales, using a scale space multiresolution correlation approach and Bayesian inference that accounts for the annually varying uncertainties in climate reconstructions. At the annual scale, fires were synchronized during summers with low precipitation, and most clearly during drought summers. A scale-derivative analysis revealed that fire synchrony and climate varied at similar, roughly decadal scales. Climatic variables and fire synchrony showed varying correlation strength and credibility, depending on the climate variable and the time period. In particular, precipitation emerged as a credible determinant of fire synchrony also at these time scales, despite the large uncertainties in precipitation reconstruction. The findings explain why fire occurrence can be high during cold periods (such as from the mid-17th to early-18th century), and stresses the notion that future fire frequency will likely depend to a greater extent on changes in precipitation than temperature alone. We showed, for the first time, the importance of climate as a decadal-scale driver of forest fires in the European boreal forests, discernible even during a period of strong human influence on fire occurrence. The fire regime responded both to anomalously dry summers, but also to decadal-scale climate changes, demonstrating how climatic variability has shaped the disturbance regimes in the northern European boreal forests over various time scales.

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