On modeling insights for emerging engineering problems: A case study on the impact of climate uncertainty on the operational performance of offshore wind farms

Abstract

This paper considers the technical and practical challenges involved in modelling emerging engineering problems. The inherent uncertainty and potential for change in operating environment and procedures adds significant complexity to the model development process. This is demonstrated by considering the development of a model to quantify the uncertainty associated with the influence of the wind and wave climate on the energy output of offshore wind farms which may result in sub-optimal operating decisions and site selection due to the competing influence of wind speed on power production and wave conditions on availability. The financial profitability of current and future projects may be threatened if climate uncertainty is not included in the planning and operational decision making process. A comprehensive climate and wind farm operational model was developed using a time series Monte Carlo simulation to model the performance of offshore wind farms, identifying non-linear relationships between climate, availability, energy output and capacity factor. This model was evaluated by engineers planning upcoming offshore wind farms to determine its usefulness for supporting operational decision making. From this, new consideration was given to the challenges in developing and applying complex simulations for emerging engineering problems.

Analysis of Wind Turbine Equipment Failure and Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Research

“…While tariffs are comm used to calculate the profit or cost of electricity for wind farms, when they are use evaluation metrics in decision support models, they are mainly used to calculate the duction loss due to wind turbine downtime. Dinwoodie et al [134] mentioned Effective O&M aims to maximize economic efficiency. While tariffs are commonly used to calculate the profit or cost of electricity for wind farms, when they are used as evaluation metrics in decision support models, they are mainly used to calculate the production loss due to wind turbine downtime.…”

“…While tariffs are commonly used to calculate the profit or cost of electricity for wind farms, when they are used as evaluation metrics in decision support models, they are mainly used to calculate the production loss due to wind turbine downtime. Dinwoodie et al [134] mentioned two methods for calculating production losses. The basic approach is to use the product of the rated power of the wind turbine as the capacity factor and downtime as the influencing factor.…”