On competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League^*

Abstract

This article examines competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League over the last two decades (1999/2000-2017/2018). Competitive balance is considered both before and after a competition. Have the groups been designed in such a way as to ensure similar levels of competitive balance ex ante? Have the demonstrated strengths (ex post competitive balance) of the different groups been similar over each season? What is the relationship between the competitive balance in the designed groups and that achieved in the same groups after the competition? Are the performance achieved in terms of ex post competitive balance similar to ex ante competitive balance levels? We found that, despite expectations, the groups' ex ante competitive balance was not homogeneous. Although ex ante competitive balance serves as a good predictor, on average, of ex post competitive balance, we observed significant differences at the levels of group and seasons. Therefore, it is possible to improve the design mechanism of the groups that make up the group stage of the champions so that they are composed homogeneously in terms of ex ante competitive balance.

The UEFA Champions League seeding is not strategy-proof since the 2015/16 season

“…According to Table 7, there is only a slight difference between the parameters for group matches estimated on the basis of the first and the last nine seasons. Nonetheless, the predictions are somewhat more accurate since 2012, which might imply a worsening competitive balance that is in line with previous research (Triguero-Ruiz and Avila-Cano, 2022). On the other hand, the dominance of model (2) over model ( 1) is obvious, and the UEFA club coefficient still does not provide additional information to Football Club Elo Rating.…”

Competitive Balance in the Post-2024 Champions League and the European Super League: A Simulation Study

“…However, the applied seeding system is not an unbiased method to evaluate teams, and for this reason, it might even decrease the overall CB (Plumley & Flint, 2015). The empirical results of Triguero-Ruiz and Avila-Cano (2023) confirm a notable decreasing trend in the CB of the group stage between 1999/2000 and 2017/2018.…”

The competitive balance of UEFA and CONMEBOL football leagues: On managing the number of teams in league design

“…However, an inherently positive relationship between competitive balance and demand, driven by the uncertainty of competition outcomes, is not universally accepted (Chung et al, 2016; Coates et al, 2014). For instance, in major European football leagues or in the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Champions League, deterioration in competitive balance has been noted over recent years (Avila‐Cano & Triguero‐Ruiz, 2023; Csató, 2023; Plumley et al, 2022; Triguero‐Ruiz & Avila‐Cano, 2023). Yet, the demand from followers and the business volume surrounding sponsorships, broadcasting, and player salaries and transfers have substantially increased.…”

“…If we focus on the former, we attend to the competitive balance of leagues, their evolution over time, and the impact of changes in league organisation. Such changes might include the number of participating teams (Triguero‐Ruiz et al, 2023), the introduction of “financial fair play” (Dermit‐Richard et al, 2019; Peeters & Szymanski, 2014), the reorganisation of the group draw system (Triguero‐Ruiz & Avila‐Cano, 2023) or alterations in the number of teams being relegated or promoted. In this latter case, the distinction between ‘open’ and ‘closed’ leagues becomes particularly pertinent.…”