Competitive Balance in the Post-2024 Champions League and the European Super League: A Simulation Study

Abstract

The proposal of the European Super League and the 2024/25 reform of the UEFA Champions League are both major events in European club football. This study compares the competitive balance (CB) of these new tournament formats with the previous Champions League format. Short-, mid- and long-term CB are quantified by measuring the average uncertainty of match outcomes, the ratio of stakeless matches, and the recurrence ratio of teams in knockout rounds. A simulation method is applied using the teams, their seeding, and Elo ratings in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 Champions League seasons. Results suggest that the 2024/25 reform improves CB, especially in match uncertainty and the occurrence of stakeless matches. In comparison, the Star League of the European Super League concept of December 2023 is superior concerning average match uncertainty. However, it has a worse CB regarding stakeless matches and dynamic CB. Reasons and suggestions for improvement are also discussed.