An approach to user modelling with discrete stochastic processes is presented, which aims at the dynamic individualization of user interfaces on the syntactic layer. The state of the art of syntactic user modelling is surveyed. The mathematical background of simple Markov Chains and the`classic' Hidden Markov Model is presented. Furthermore, dynamic Bayesian Networks are introduced, which generalize these Markovian Models. A case study of the simulation experiments uses a multimodal user interface for supervisory control of advanced manufacturing cells. A corresponding simulation model is created and exploited to generate interaction cases, which are the empirical basis for the evaluation. Six topologies of dynamic Bayesian Networks are evaluated for 100 interaction cases and 50 replications each: (1) Markov Chain of order 1, (2) Hidden Markov Model, (3) autoregressive Hidden Markov Model, (4) factorial Hidden Markov Model, (5) simple hierarchical Hidden Markov Model, and (6) tree structured Hidden Markov Model. The dependent variable is the prediction accuracy for a single prediction lead. In a ®rst step, a one-way analysis of variance in conjunction with Tukey's post-hoc test demonstrated a signi®cant superiority of the simple hierarchical Hidden Markov Model. In a second step, an additional two-way analysis of variance also indicated a signi®cantly better prediction accuracy of the simple hierarchical Hidden Markov Model compared to the Hidden Markov Model, but the number of interaction cases also had a signi®cant eVect. Hence, the modeller has to take both factorsÐmodel topology and number of interaction casesÐinto account when designing syntactic user models with stochastic processes.
IntroductionThis study deals with theoretical aspects of software ergonomic design of human± machine systems. According to the ISO 9241 standard (part 10), seven ergonomic principles of dialogue design are distinguished. In the following sections, the sixth design principle`suitability for individualization' is analysed in detail. The suitability for individualization deals with adapting structure and dynamics of the user interface to human information processing. With regard to Rasmussen's (1986) model of human information processing, three levels of cognitive control can be taken into account: skill-based behaviour, rule-based behaviour, and knowledge-base d behaviour. We focus on a dynamic individualizatio n shaped by rule-based behaviour. From the point of view of semiotics (Morris 1938), the rule-based behaviour