Abstract:The purpose of this paper is to study a stochastic model which assesses the effect of mutual interference on the searching efficiency in populations of insect parasites. By looking carefully at the assumptions which govern the model, I shall explain why the searching efficiency is of the same order as the total number, N, in the population, a conclusion which is consistent with the predictions of population biologists; previous studies have reached the conclusion that the efficiency is of order \/~N . The majo… Show more
“…We will apply Theorem 3.1 of Pollett [24] which allows us to approximate the path of our process by the solution to a system of differential equations. To do this we first need to establish that our model is density dependent in the sense of Kurtz [23], or at least asymptotically density dependent [24].…”
“…To do this we first need to establish that our model is density dependent in the sense of Kurtz [23], or at least asymptotically density dependent [24].…”
“…, J. Therefore, the family of processes indexed by the population ceiling N is asymptotically density dependent according to Definition 3.1 of [24]. Next we apply Theorem 3.1 of [24], the analogue of Theorem 3.1 of Kurtz [23] for asymptotically density dependent families of processes.…”
“…Therefore, the family of processes indexed by the population ceiling N is asymptotically density dependent according to Definition 3.1 of [24]. Next we apply Theorem 3.1 of [24], the analogue of Theorem 3.1 of Kurtz [23] for asymptotically density dependent families of processes. The conditions of this theorem are fulfilled as f N (x, l) is bounded on E for all N and l and is nonzero for only finitely many l. Recall that λ ij is the proportion of individuals emanating from patch i who are destined for patch j. Thus,…”
“…In this case, the stationary distribution would necessarily assign all its probability mass to the extinction state, and thus would not provide useful information about any quasi-stationary regime (being a common feature of metapopulation models [22]). Instead, we analyse this model by determining a simpler approximating differential equation based on the work of Kurtz [23] and Pollett [24].…”
We develop a stochastic metapopulation model that accounts for spatial structure as well as within patch dynamics. Using a deterministic approximation derived from a functional law of large numbers, we develop conditions for extinction and persistence of the metapopulation in terms of the birth, death and migration parameters. Interestingly, we observe the Allee effect in a metapopulation comprising two patches of greatly different sizes, despite there being decreasing patch specific per-capita birth rates. We show that the Allee effect is due to way the migration rates depend on the population density of the patches.
“…We will apply Theorem 3.1 of Pollett [24] which allows us to approximate the path of our process by the solution to a system of differential equations. To do this we first need to establish that our model is density dependent in the sense of Kurtz [23], or at least asymptotically density dependent [24].…”
“…To do this we first need to establish that our model is density dependent in the sense of Kurtz [23], or at least asymptotically density dependent [24].…”
“…, J. Therefore, the family of processes indexed by the population ceiling N is asymptotically density dependent according to Definition 3.1 of [24]. Next we apply Theorem 3.1 of [24], the analogue of Theorem 3.1 of Kurtz [23] for asymptotically density dependent families of processes.…”
“…Therefore, the family of processes indexed by the population ceiling N is asymptotically density dependent according to Definition 3.1 of [24]. Next we apply Theorem 3.1 of [24], the analogue of Theorem 3.1 of Kurtz [23] for asymptotically density dependent families of processes. The conditions of this theorem are fulfilled as f N (x, l) is bounded on E for all N and l and is nonzero for only finitely many l. Recall that λ ij is the proportion of individuals emanating from patch i who are destined for patch j. Thus,…”
“…In this case, the stationary distribution would necessarily assign all its probability mass to the extinction state, and thus would not provide useful information about any quasi-stationary regime (being a common feature of metapopulation models [22]). Instead, we analyse this model by determining a simpler approximating differential equation based on the work of Kurtz [23] and Pollett [24].…”
We develop a stochastic metapopulation model that accounts for spatial structure as well as within patch dynamics. Using a deterministic approximation derived from a functional law of large numbers, we develop conditions for extinction and persistence of the metapopulation in terms of the birth, death and migration parameters. Interestingly, we observe the Allee effect in a metapopulation comprising two patches of greatly different sizes, despite there being decreasing patch specific per-capita birth rates. We show that the Allee effect is due to way the migration rates depend on the population density of the patches.
Models for the economic evaluation of health technologies provide valuable information to decision makers. The choice of model structure is rarely discussed in published studies and can affect the results produced. Many papers describe good modelling practice, but few describe how to choose from the many types of available models. This paper develops a new taxonomy of model structures. The horizontal axis of the taxonomy describes assumptions about the role of expected values, randomness, the heterogeneity of entities, and the degree of non-Markovian structure. Commonly used aggregate models, including decision trees and Markov models require large population numbers, homogeneous sub-groups and linear interactions. Individual models are more flexible, but may require replications with different random numbers to estimate expected values. The vertical axis of the taxonomy describes potential interactions between the individual actors, as well as how the interactions occur through time. Models using interactions, such as system dynamics, some Markov models, and discrete event simulation are fairly uncommon in the health economics but are necessary for modelling infectious diseases and systems with constrained resources. The paper provides guidance for choosing a model, based on key requirements, including output requirements, the population size, and system complexity.
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