Oil tanker under ice loadings

Abstract

As a result of global warming, the area of the polar pack ice is diminishing, making merchant travel more practical. Even if Arctic ice thickness reduced in the summer, fractured ice is still presenting operational risks to the future navigation. The intricate process of ship-ice interaction includes stochastic ice loading on the vessel hull. In order to properly construct a vessel, the severe bow forces that arise must be accurately anticipated using statistical extrapolation techniques. This study examines the severe bow forces that an oil tanker encounters when sailing in the Arctic Ocean. Two stages are taken in the analysis. Then, using the FEM program ANSYS/LS-DYNA, the oil tanker bow force distribution is estimated. Second, in order to estimate the bow force levels connected with extended return periods, the average conditional exceedance rate approach is used to anticipate severe bow forces. The vessel’s itinerary was planned to take advantage of the weaker ice. As a result, the Arctic Ocean passage took a meandering route rather than a linear one. As a result, the ship route data that was investigated was inaccurate with regard to the ice thickness data encountered by a vessel yet skewed with regard to the ice thickness distribution in the region. This research intends to demonstrate the effective application of an exact reliability approach to an oil tanker with severe bow forces on a particular route.

Dementia death rates prediction

“…Figure 5a) presents prediction by Gumbel method, it is seen that advocated methodology in Fig. 5b) a) performs significantly more accurate than Gumbel extrapolation method, in terms of CI, however predicted risk levels are very close, namely near 0.03% [35,[52][53][54][55][56][57][58].…”

Energy harvester reliability study by Gaidai reliability method

“…Novel method was validated versus a well-established bivariate Weibull method, using both analytical synthetic data and measured GPEH system dynamics. Finally, advocated Using advocated method for systems with more than two dimensions obviously cannot be validated versus bivariate statistical methods; hence, it can be validated versus direct Monte Carlo simulations; for details, see authors' latest works (Gaidai, Liu, et al, 2023;Gaidai, Wang, Yakimov, Sun, et al, 2023;Gaidai, Xu, Yakimov, et al, 2023;Gaidai, Yakimov, Wang, Hu, et al, 2023;Gaidai, Yakimov, Wang, Zhang, et al, 2023;Gaidai, Yan, Xing, Xu, et al, 2023;Liu et al, 2023;Yakimov, Gaidai, Wang, Xu, et al, 2023). Suggested methodology may be well used in a wide range of engineering areas of applications.…”

Analytical and Computational Modeling for Multi-Degree of Freedom Systems: Estimating the Likelihood of an FOWT Structural Failure

“…Note that P ≡ P(1) is from Equation (1). Non-exceedance system survival probability P(λ) may be now estimated as follows [54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64]:…”

“…. being ranked based on the non-decreasing occurrence times of these local maxima [59][60][61][62][63][64][65]. Figure 5 presents an example of a non-dimensional assembled vector → R, consisting of assembled local maxima of the FWT's internal forces; λ > 0.05 cut-on limit was used for illustrative purposes, as lower values λ ≥ 0 are obviously irrelevant for the failure/hazard system's PDF tail extrapolation towards the target λ = 1.…”