Oil spill forecast model based on uncertainty analysis: A case study of Dalian Oil Spill

Modelling of oil spill trajectory for 2011 Penglai 19-3 coastal drilling field, China

“…To simulate the drift of oil slicks, a three dimensional oil transport model including a variety of processes such as spreading, stranding, evaporation and emulsion was then developed on the basis of both the hydrodynamics and the Lagrangian discrete particle algorithm. According to the Lagrangian discrete particle algorithm, the movement of a large number of small oil particles of equal mass can be driven by the media such as sea water with the velocity componentsŨðx; y; z; tÞ;Ṽðx; y; z; tÞ andWðx; y; z; tÞ, the buoyancy velocity of oil particles u b and the turbulent fluctuationsÛðx; y; z; tÞ,Vðx; y; z; tÞ andŴðx; y; z; tÞ by Xu et al [8]. Hence, the coordinates X, Y and Z of oil particles can be written as [8],…”

Decision support system for emergency management of oil spill accidents in the Mediterranean Sea

“…Recently, several systems have been set up and developed. An oil trajectory forecasting tool GNOME (Zelenke et al, 2012) and an oil weathering model ADIOS (Lehr et al, 2002) were combined with Environmental Sensitivity Index maps (Jensen et al, 1990) and a fine-resolution visualization module ERMA (ERMA, 2014) for efficient spill response planning (Muskat, 2014). At the European level, four oil spill models were integrated in the framework of the MEDESS4MS project (Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety) as follows: MOTHY (Daniel, 1996), MEDSLIK (Zodiatis et al, 2008), MEDSLIK-II (De Dominicis et al, 2013a), and POSEIDON-OSM (Nittis et al, 2006).…”

“…In contrast to atmospheric pollution models (e.g., Bergin et al, 1999), the methods of uncertainty quantification are not well established in oil spill modeling. Nevertheless, uncertainty algorithms with respect to perturbation of ocean currents and wind were implemented in General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) (Zelenke et al, 2012). Currently, the majority of uncertainty estimations still remain a matter of research, being beyond the scope of web-based operational implementations.…”

“…For example, Sebastiao and Guedes Soares (2007) varied the current and wind components, wind drag coefficient, and deflection angle for the Aragon case (Portugal, December 1989). Uncertainty analysis with respect to amount of spilled oil was carried out in Xu et al (2012). A multi-model approach which used an ensemble of meteooceanographic models was implemented in De , which allowed the authors to improve the quality of oil drift prediction significantly.…”

Assessing pollution-related effects of oil spills from ships in the Chinese Bohai Sea

“…For example, scientific literature includes the studies of many oceanographers who have investigated an oil spill simulation based on a single case. These studies employed many kinds of models including Princeton Ocean Model, the Estuary, Coastal and Ocean Model (ECOM), the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, the Regional Ocean Modeling System, and the General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (Xu et al, 2012;Jin and Wang, 2004;Mariano et al, 2011;Marta-Almeida et al, 2013;Deng et al, 2013a). These models may or may not take into account the weathering processes of oil in sea water.…”