Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness

Majumder, Monoj Kumar; Raghavan, Mala; Vespignani, Joaquin L.

doi:10.24149/gwp370

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In this instance, it is argued that oil price fluctuations have a considerable impact on individuals’ welfare over the globe (Mgbame et al , 2015). However, other works claim that the actions of economic policies can absorb the effect of oil price shocks on the real product (Vespignani et al , 2019; Gershon et al , 2019). Further, Odhiambo (2020) reviews the literature about the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth and he states that the effect varies for different countries or different samples.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: the case of MENA countries

Abdelsalam

2020

REPS

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Purpose This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a separate analysis for each MENA oil-export and oil-import countries is conducted. Furthermore, it studies to what extent the quality of institutions will change the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach As the effect of oil price fluctuations is not the same over different business cycles or oil price levels, the paper uses a panel quantile regression approach with other linear models such as fixed effects, random effects and panel generalized method of moments. The panel quantile methodology is an extension of traditional linear models and it has the advantage of exploring the relationship over the different quantiles of the whole distribution. Findings The paper can summarize results as following: changes in oil price and its volatility have an opposite effect for each oil-export and oil-import countries; for the former, changes in oil prices have a positive impact but the volatility a negative effect. While for the latter, changes in oil prices have a negative effect but volatility a positive effect. Further, the impact of oil price changes and their uncertainty are different across different quantiles. Furthermore, there is evidence about the asymmetric effect of the oil price changes on economic growth. Finally, accounting for institutional quality led to a reduction in the impact of oil price changes on economic growth. Originality/value The study concludes more detailed results on the impact of oil prices on gross domestic product growth. Thus, it can be used as a decision-support tool for policymakers.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: the case of MENA countries

Abdelsalam

2020

REPS

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“…In this example, it is contended that oil cost changes notably affect government agencies ability to assist its various economic sectors (Mgbame et al, 2015). Nonetheless, another different works guarantee that the activities of monetary arrangements can retain the impact of oil cost instabilities on the economic enhancement (Vespignani et al, 2019;Gershon et al, 2019). Further, Odhiambo (2020) suggested that the impact of oil cost instabilities on economic development varies between deferent countries based on their dependability on oil prices as a source of energy.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Mediating the Interaction between Oil Prices and Economic Sectors Advancement: The Case of Middle East

Aladwan

Almaharmeh

Samara

2023

IJEEP

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This paper analyzes the impact of international oil price influence on the different economic sectors and GDP in middle east region for the period 2007 to 2021. The study also empirically analysis the mediation role for oil price on various economic sectors and on GDP. The empirical analysis involved testing the direct effect for oil prices on sectors by correlation, simple and multiple regression through Ordinary Least Square (OLS) in addition to screen graphically this effect on all sectors including GDP. The main findings may be summarized as follows: employing the causality examination for the interaction among oil prices and economic sectors growth confirmed the significant adverse effect for oil prices on all sectors and total GDP. On other hand outcomes of multiple regression fail to discover the adverse influence of oil values on the combined impact of all sectors on GDP. The results of multiple regression revealed that the major sectors that only contributes significantly to GDP are; the agriculture, industrial, trading and real estate sectors.

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“…According to Mork et al (1989), there is asymmetry in economic policy and there are good reasons to believe this, so that whenever prices fall this is not met by inflationary policy in oil importing countries of the same magnitude. Researchers such as (Gershon et al, 2019;Vespignani et al, 2019) have claimed that the effects of oil price shocks on real product can be absorbed through the actions of economic policies. Also related to how oil price shocks influence economic policy is the aspect of uncertainty.…”

Section: Oil Price Fluctuations and Business Cycles: A Theoretical Fr...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Petroleum Price Asymmetries and Price Deregulation Cause Business Cycles in Ghana?

Sackey,

Asravor,

Orkoh

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In the context of volatilities in the international situations in recent times, studies regarding the complexities of oil price fluctuations have focussed on analysing the special fluctuation characteristics of oil prices in different historical perspectives. This study examines the extent to which petroleum price fluctuations under the petroleum price deregulation regime impact on business cycles in Ghana. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with a quarterly data spanning from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Our empirical results show that price stability impacts positively on economic growth, both in the short and the long run, while foreign direct investment also has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run. Our findings are consistent with theory and empirical studies and contributes immensely to the discussions about price asymmetry and business cycles. Again, offers a nuanced perspective on how policy makers can enact policies that ensures efficient and effective deregulation and price stability.

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Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness

Cited by 11 publications

References 31 publications

Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: the case of MENA countries

Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: the case of MENA countries

Modeling and Mediating the Interaction between Oil Prices and Economic Sectors Advancement: The Case of Middle East

Do Petroleum Price Asymmetries and Price Deregulation Cause Business Cycles in Ghana?

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