Modeling and Mediating the Interaction between Oil Prices and Economic Sectors Advancement: The Case of Middle East

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of international oil price influence on the different economic sectors and GDP in middle east region for the period 2007 to 2021. The study also empirically analysis the mediation role for oil price on various economic sectors and on GDP. The empirical analysis involved testing the direct effect for oil prices on sectors by correlation, simple and multiple regression through Ordinary Least Square (OLS) in addition to screen graphically this effect on all sectors including GDP. The main findings may be summarized as follows: employing the causality examination for the interaction among oil prices and economic sectors growth confirmed the significant adverse effect for oil prices on all sectors and total GDP. On other hand outcomes of multiple regression fail to discover the adverse influence of oil values on the combined impact of all sectors on GDP. The results of multiple regression revealed that the major sectors that only contributes significantly to GDP are; the agriculture, industrial, trading and real estate sectors.