Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in reduced anthropogenic
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during 2020 in large parts of the world.
To investigate whether a regional-scale reduction of anthropogenic CO2
emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic can be detected using space-based
observations of atmospheric CO2, we have analysed a small ensemble of
OCO-2 and GOSAT satellite retrievals of column-averaged dry-air mole
fractions of CO2, i.e. XCO2. We focus on East China and use a
simple data-driven analysis method. We present estimates of the relative
change of East China monthly emissions in 2020 relative to previous periods,
limiting the analysis to October-to-May periods to minimize the impact of
biogenic CO2 fluxes. The ensemble mean indicates an emission reduction
by approximately 10 % ± 10 % in March and April 2020. However, our
results show considerable month-to-month variability and significant
differences across the ensemble of satellite data products analysed. For
example, OCO-2 suggests a much smaller reduction (∼ 1 %–2 % ± 2 %). This indicates that it is challenging to reliably detect and
to accurately quantify the emission reduction with current satellite data
sets. There are several reasons for this, including the sparseness of the
satellite data but also the weak signal; the expected regional XCO2
reduction is only on the order of 0.1–0.2 ppm. Inferring COVID-19-related
information on regional-scale CO2 emissions using current satellite
XCO2 retrievals likely requires, if at all possible, a more
sophisticated analysis method including detailed transport modelling and
considering a priori information on anthropogenic and natural CO2 surface
fluxes.