Atmospheric deposition is a source of potentially bioavailable iron (Fe) and thus can partially control biological productivity in large parts of the ocean. However, the explanation of observed high aerosol Fe solubility compared to that in soil particles is still controversial, as several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this observation. Here, a statistical analysis of aerosol Fe solubility estimated from four models and observations compiled from multiple field campaigns suggests that pyrogenic aerosols are the main sources of aerosols with high Fe solubility at low concentration. Additionally, we find that field data over the Southern Ocean display a much wider range in aerosol Fe solubility compared to the models, which indicate an underestimation of labile Fe concentrations by a factor of 15. These findings suggest that pyrogenic Fe-containing aerosols are important sources of atmospheric bioavailable Fe to the open ocean and crucial for predicting anthropogenic perturbations to marine productivity.

[1] Ozone is an air quality problem today for much of the world's population. Regions can exceed the ozone air quality standards (AQS) through a combination of local emissions, meteorology favoring pollution episodes, and the clean-air baseline levels of ozone upon which pollution builds. The IPCC 2001 assessment studied a range of global emission scenarios and found that all but one projects increases in global tropospheric ozone during the 21st century. By 2030, near-surface increases over much of the northern hemisphere are estimated to be about 5 ppb (+2 to +7 ppb over the range of scenarios). By 2100 the two more extreme scenarios project baseline ozone increases of >20 ppb, while the other four scenarios give changes of À4 to +10 ppb. Even modest increases in the background abundance of tropospheric ozone might defeat current AQS strategies. The larger increases, however, would gravely threaten both urban and rural air quality over most of the northern hemisphere.

Abstract. This work reports on the current status of the global modeling of iron (Fe) deposition fluxes and atmospheric concentrations and the analyses of the differences between models, as well as between models and observations. A total of four global 3-D chemistry transport (CTMs) and general circulation (GCMs) models participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of the United Nations Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP) Working Group 38, “The Atmospheric Input of Chemicals to the Ocean”. The global total Fe (TFe) emission strength in the models is equal to ∼72 Tg Fe yr−1 (38–134 Tg Fe yr−1) from mineral dust sources and around 2.1 Tg Fe yr−1 (1.8–2.7 Tg Fe yr−1) from combustion processes (the sum of anthropogenic combustion/biomass burning and wildfires). The mean global labile Fe (LFe) source strength in the models, considering both the primary emissions and the atmospheric processing, is calculated to be 0.7 (±0.3) Tg Fe yr−1, accounting for both mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The mean global deposition fluxes into the global ocean are estimated to be in the range of 10–30 and 0.2–0.4 Tg Fe yr−1 for TFe and LFe, respectively, which roughly corresponds to a respective 15 and 0.3 Tg Fe yr−1 for the multi-model ensemble model mean. The model intercomparison analysis indicates that the representation of the atmospheric Fe cycle varies among models, in terms of both the magnitude of natural and combustion Fe emissions as well as the complexity of atmospheric processing parameterizations of Fe-containing aerosols. The model comparison with aerosol Fe observations over oceanic regions indicates that most models overestimate surface level TFe mass concentrations near dust source regions and tend to underestimate the low concentrations observed in remote ocean regions. All models are able to simulate the tendency of higher Fe concentrations near and downwind from the dust source regions, with the mean normalized bias for the Northern Hemisphere (∼14), larger than that of the Southern Hemisphere (∼2.4) for the ensemble model mean. This model intercomparison and model–observation comparison study reveals two critical issues in LFe simulations that require further exploration: (1) the Fe-containing aerosol size distribution and (2) the relative contribution of dust and combustion sources of Fe to labile Fe in atmospheric aerosols over the remote oceanic regions.

[1] Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison (''OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the ''SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m À2 on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m À2 . The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change. INDEX TERMS:0365 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere-composition and chemistry; 0341 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere-constituent transport and chemistry (3334) Citation: Gauss, M., et al., Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere,

Abstract. Mineral dust deposition is suggested to be a significant atmospheric supply pathway of bioavailable iron (Fe) to Fe-depleted surface oceans. In this study, mineral dust and dissolved Fe (Fed) deposition rates are predicted for March 2009 to February 2010 using the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem implemented with a comprehensive dust-Fe dissolution scheme. The model simulates Fed production during the atmospheric transport of mineral dust, taking into account inorganic and organic (oxalate)-promoted Fe dissolution processes, photochemical redox cycling between ferric (Fe(III)) and ferrous (Fe(II)) forms of Fe, dissolution of three different Fe-containing minerals (hematite, goethite, and aluminosilicates), and detailed mineralogy of wind-blown dust from the major desert regions. Our calculations suggest that during the year-long simulation ~0.26 Tg (1 Tg = 1012 g) of Fed was deposited to global oceanic regions. Compared to simulations only taking into account proton-promoted Fe dissolution, the addition of oxalate and Fe(II)/Fe(III) redox cycling to the dust-Fe mobilization scheme increased total annual model-predicted Fed deposition to global oceanic regions by ~75%. The implementation of Fe(II)/Fe(III) photochemical redox cycling in the model also allows for the distinction between different oxidation states of deposited Fed. Our calculations suggest that during the daytime, large fractions of Fed deposited to the global oceans is likely to be in Fe(II) form, while nocturnal fluxes of Fed are largely in Fe(III) form. Model sensitivity simulations suggest Fed fluxes to the oceans can range from ~50% reduction to ~150% increase associated with the uncertainty in Fe-containing minerals commonly found in dust particles. This study indicates that Fed deposition to the oceans is controlled by total dust-Fe mass concentrations, mineralogy, the surface area of dust particles, atmospheric chemical composition, cloud processing, and meteorological parameters and exhibits complex and spatiotemporally variable patterns. Our study suggests that the explicit model representation of individual processes leading to Fed production within mineral dust are needed to improve the understanding of the atmospheric Fe cycle, and quantify the effect of dust-Fe on ocean biological productivity, carbon cycle, and climate.