Observed variations in multidecadal Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979–2012

Simpkins, Graham; Ciasto, Laura M.; England, Matthew H.

doi:10.1002/grl.50715

Cited by 53 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Previous studies have shown a positive trend in coverage and season length of sea ice in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea regions (adjacent to Section 1) [1,34]. Both Sections 2 and 3 include areas of ice sheet, but the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Sea is adjacent to Section 1 and the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean are adjacent to Section 3.…”

Section: Spatial Trend and Classification Of Albedo Over Antarcticamentioning

confidence: 95%

Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

et al. 2016

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Abstract:The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow-and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO) during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year −1 ), but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year −1 ). In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This suggests that the eastern area is influenced by the atmosphere, but that the western area is influenced more strongly by other factors.

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Section: Spatial Trend and Classification Of Albedo Over Antarcticamentioning

confidence: 95%

Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

et al. 2016

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“…Over the period 1979-1990, the total Antarctic SIE decreased at a rate of −153 × 10 3 km 2 per decade (1.3% per decade), predominantly due to a rapid decline in the Bellingshausen Sea (e.g. [15]), although the trend in this short record is not significant. However, the decrease in ice seemed consistent at that time with the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and the loss of ice in the Arctic.…”

Section: The Observed Changesmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…The couplet of increasing SIE in the Ross Sea and decrease in the ABS is present in all seasons, although in winter the trend in the ABS is essentially zero. Furthermore, Simpkins et al [15] demonstrated that these trends are dominated by different temporal variability. Figure 1 shows that the largest positive SIC anomalies in the Ross Sea advance northwards during the sea ice growth season from close to the coast of Victoria Land in autumn to lie along the sea ice edge in spring, before retreating southwards again in summer.…”

Section: The Observed Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in Antarctic Sea Ice

Turner

Hosking

Bracegirdle

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

155

146

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One contribution of 9 to a discussion meeting issue 'Arctic sea ice reduction: the evidence, models and impacts (part 1)' . In contrast to the Arctic, total sea ice extent (SIE) across the Southern Ocean has increased since the late 1970s, with the annual mean increasing at a rate of 186 × 10 3 km 2 per decade (1.5% per decade; p < 0.01) for 1979-2013. However, this overall increase masks larger regional variations, most notably an increase (decrease) over the Ross (Amundsen-Bellingshausen) Sea. Sea ice variability results from changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions, although the former is thought to be more significant, since there is a high correlation between anomalies in the ice concentration and the near-surface wind field. The Southern Ocean SIE trend is dominated by the increase in the Ross Sea sector, where the SIE is significantly correlated with the depth of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which has deepened since 1979. The depth of the ASL is influenced by a number of external factors, including tropical sea surface temperatures, but the low also has a large locally driven intrinsic variability, suggesting that SIE in these areas is especially variable. Many of the current generation of coupled climate models have difficulty in simulating sea ice. However, output from the better-performing IPCC CMIP5 models suggests that the recent increase in Antarctic SIE may be within the bounds of intrinsic/internal variability.

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“…The polar regions have undergone major transformations over the last three decades, with satellite and in situ observations revealing a dramatic decline of Arctic summer sea ice extent and volume [Meier et al, 2013;Kwok and Rothrock, 2009], and a modest increase in winter Antarctic sea ice extent with significant spatial variability [Simpkins et al, 2013]. The magnitude and trends of such changes can only be partially captured by contemporary climate models [Stroeve et al, 2007;Jeffries et al, 2013;Tietsche et al, 2014], suggesting that important physical processes are being neglected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of viscoelastic‐type models for ocean wave attenuation in ice‐covered seas

2015

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Continuum‐based models that describe the propagation of ocean waves in ice‐infested seas are considered, where the surface ocean layer (including ice floes, brash ice, etc.) is modeled by a homogeneous viscoelastic material which causes waves to attenuate as they travel through the medium. Three ice layer models are compared, namely a viscoelastic fluid layer model currently being trialed in the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III® and two simpler viscoelastic thin beam models. All three models are two dimensional. A comparative analysis shows that one of the beam models provides similar predictions for wave attenuation and wavelength to the viscoelastic fluid model. The three models are calibrated using wave attenuation data recently collected in the Antarctic marginal ice zone as an example. Although agreement with the data is obtained with all three models, several important issues related to the viscoelastic fluid model are identified that raise questions about its suitability to characterize wave attenuation in ice‐covered seas. Viscoelastic beam models appear to provide a more robust parameterization of the phenomenon being modeled, but still remain questionable as a valid characterization of wave‐ice interactions generally.

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Observed variations in multidecadal Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979–2012

Cited by 53 publications

References 27 publications

Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

Recent changes in Antarctic Sea Ice

Comparison of viscoelastic‐type models for ocean wave attenuation in ice‐covered seas

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