Observed changes in Brewer–Dobson circulation for 1980–2018

Fu, Qiang; Solomon, Susan; Pahlavan, Hamid A.; Lin, Pu

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4de7

Cited by 35 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…×10 9 kg • s −1 from previous studies (e.g, Butchart et al, 2010;Hardiman et al, 2014;Linz et al, 2017). The ERA5 tropical upwelling mass flux trend at 70 hPa calculated from w * is about 1.5 % per decade, consistent with the observed BDC changes of about 1.7 % per decade (Fu et al, 2019) and climate model predictions of an increase in the strength of the BDC of about 2 % per decade due to the increasing GHGs in the atmosphere (Butchart et al, 2010;Garny et al, 2011;Hardiman et al, 2014).…”

Section: Planetary and Gravity Wave Forcingssupporting

confidence: 86%

The advective Brewer-Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: variability and trends

Diallo

Ern

Ploeger

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is an important element of climate as it determines the transport and distributions of key radiatively active atmospheric trace gases, which affect the Earth’s radiation budget and surface climate. Here, we evaluate the inter-annual variability and trends of the BDC in the ERA5 reanalysis and inter-compare with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1979–2018 period. We also assess the modulation of the circulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the forcings of the circulation by the planetary and gravity wave drag. A comparison of ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses shows a very good agreement in the morphology of the BDC and in its structural modulations by the natural variability related to QBO and ENSO. Despite the good agreement in the spatial structure, there are substantial differences in the strength of the BDC and of the natural variability impacts on the BDC between the two reanalyses, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), and in the upper stratosphere. Throughout most regions of the stratosphere, the variability and trends of the advective BDC are stronger in the ERA5 reanalysis due to stronger planetary and gravity wave forcings, except in the UTLS below 20 km where the tropical upwelling is about 40 % weaker due to a weaker gravity wave forcings at the equatorial flank of the subtropical jet. In the extra-tropics, the large-scale downwelling is stronger in ERA5 than in ERA-Interim linked to significant differences in planetary and gravity wave forcings. Analysis of the BDC trend shows a global acceleration of the annual mean residual circulation with an acceleration rate of about 1.5 % per decade at 70 hPa due to the long-term intensification in gravity and planetary wave breaking, consistent with observed and future climate model predicted BDC changes.

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Section: Planetary and Gravity Wave Forcingssupporting

confidence: 86%

The advective Brewer-Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: variability and trends

Diallo

Ern

Ploeger

2020

Preprint

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“…In the last decade, there has been a surge of interest in the BDC, mainly resulting from the development and continuing improvement of general circulation models (GCMs) and chemistry-climate models (CCMs) with detailed representations of the stratosphere (e.g., Butchart, 2014;Eyring et al, 2005;Gerber et al, 2012;Pawson et al, 2000;SPARC CCMVal, 2010). In agreement with pioneering work by Rind et al (1990), the new stratosphere-resolving GCMs and CCMs consistently predict a strengthening of the BDC in response to greenhouse gas-induced climate change (e.g., Bunzel & Schmidt, 2013;Butchart et al, 2006;Fu et al, 2015;Fu et al, 2019;Garcia & Randel, 2008;Li et al, 2008;Lin & Fu, 2013;McLandress & Shepherd, 2009;Oberlander et al, 2013;Okamoto et al, 2011). Modeling studies also find that the BDC becomes stronger (weaker) in response to the ozone depletion (recovery) (e.g., Li et al, 2008;Lin & Fu, 2013;McLandress et al, 2010;Oman et al, 2009;Polvani et al, 2011;Polvani et al, 2018;Polvani et al, 2019;Shindell & Schmidt, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 79%

The Brewer‐Dobson Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum

White

Wang

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Brewer‐Dobson circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated in simulations using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6. We examine vertical mass fluxes, age of stratospheric air, and the transformed Eulerian mean stream function and find that the modeled annual‐mean Brewer‐Dobson circulation during the LGM is almost everywhere slower than that in the modern climate (with or without anthropogenic ozone depleting substances). Compared to the modern climate, the annual‐mean tropical upwelling in the LGM is 11.3–16.9%, 11.2–15.8%, and 4.4–10.2% weaker, respectively, at 100, 70, and 30 hPa. Simulated decreases in annual‐mean mass fluxes at 70 and 100 hPa are caused by a weaker parameterized orographic gravity wave drag and resolved wave drag, respectively.

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“…Atmospheric observations clearly reveal a warming of the troposphere over the last decades (e.g., Santer et al, 2017;Steiner et al, 2019) and changes in the seasonal cycle (Santer et al, 2018). Changes in atmospheric circulation (e.g., Cohen et al, 2014;Fu et al, 2019) together with thermodynamic changes (e.g., Fischer and Knutti, 2016;Trenberth et al, 2015) will lead to more extreme weather events and increase high impact risks for society (e.g., Coumou et al, 2018;Zscheischler et al, 2018). Therefore, a rigorous assessment of the atmospheric heat content in context with all Earth's climate subsystems is important for a full view on the changing climate system.…”

Section: Heat Available To Warm the Atmospherementioning

confidence: 99%

Heat stored in the Earth system: Where does the energy go? The GCOS Earth heat inventory team

Schuckmann¹,

Cheng²,

Palmer³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system from this accumulated heat – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory, and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the past 58 years, with a total heat gain of 393 &pm; 40 ZJ, which is equivalent to a heating rate of 0.42 &pm; 0.04 W m−2. The majority of the heat gain (89 %) takes place in the global ocean (0–700 m: 53 %; 700–2000 m: 28 %; > 2000 m: 8 %), while it amounts to 6 % for the land heat gain, to 4 % available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and to 1 % for atmospheric warming. These new estimates indicate a larger contribution of land and ice heat gain (10 % in total) compared to previous estimates (7 %). There is a regime shift of the Earth heat inventory over the past 2 decades, which appears to be predominantly driven by heat sequestration into the deeper layers of the global ocean, and a doubling of heat gain in the atmosphere. However, a major challenge is to reduce uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory, which can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, as well as to establish an international framework for concerted multi-disciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory. Earth heat inventory is published at DKRZ (https://www.dkrz.de/) under the doi: https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP (von Schuckmann et al., 2020).

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Observed changes in Brewer–Dobson circulation for 1980–2018

Cited by 35 publications

References 75 publications

The advective Brewer-Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: variability and trends

The advective Brewer-Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: variability and trends

The Brewer‐Dobson Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum

Heat stored in the Earth system: Where does the energy go? The GCOS Earth heat inventory team

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