Observed changes in air temperature and precipitation extremes over Brazil

Regoto, Pedro; Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira; Chou, Sin Chan

doi:10.1002/joc.7119

Cited by 63 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Regarding seasonal variability, the Autumn/Winter months were the months with the largest number of heat waves recorded. Regoto et al (2021) show that the warm extremes frequency of occurrence is increasing significantly, and the highest increases in warm extremes occur during austral spring and summer while for the cold extremes the greatest decreases are observed during austral winter. Bitencourt et al (2019) studied trends in frequency, duration, severity, and intensity of heat waves from 1961 to 2016.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

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The heat wave of October 2020 in central South America

Marengo

Ambrizzi

Barreto³

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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During September–November 2020, the meteorological services of Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia reported record‐high maximum temperatures in several warm spells during this season. Positive and significant trends in heat wave frequency, intensity, and duration have been recorded since the 1980s, particularly in large cities. In this study, a heat wave is defined as a period in which both daily maximum and minimum air temperatures exceed the corresponding climatological 90th percentile for three or more consecutive days during September–November 2020. In this period, an intense heat wave during the first half of October and two heat waves events in November resulted in record‐breaking daily maximum temperatures in several locations in central South America. Places experienced temperature of about 10°C above normal, and some locations reported maximum temperatures above 40°C for several days in a row. Because its intensity and geographical extension, affecting central South America from southern Peruvian Amazon to southeastern Brazil, the heat wave of September 23–October 15 was selected as a case study. This intense heat wave was due a persistent atmospheric blocking located starting in late September and lasting until middle October 2020, a continuous presence of a warm air mass for several consecutive days contributed to pronounced positive temperature anomalies, possibly reinforced by extremely low soil moisture. This makes it easier for these high‐pressure systems to generate extreme heat waves because more of the sun's energy is going into heating the atmosphere rather than evaporating non‐existent water in the soil. This heat wave aggravated the drought over the Pantanal and other regions in October 2020, increasing fires and impacts on natural and human systems, representing a severe drought‐heat compound event. This vicious cycle of drought and extreme heat is of the kind expected under a warming climate.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…Regoto et al . (2021) show that the warm extremes frequency of occurrence is increasing significantly, and the highest increases in warm extremes occur during austral spring and summer while for the cold extremes the greatest decreases are observed during austral winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The heat wave of October 2020 in central South America

Marengo

Ambrizzi

Barreto³

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…In the Southern region, the climate is becoming wetter, with a reduction in consecutive dry days, especially in spring. For the other regions, there is no strong clear change sign, but both positive and negative precipitation extreme trends, without statistical signi cance, mostly in Southeast Region where is it located CRJ (Regoto et al 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Homogeneous regions for rainfall distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro associated with the risk of natural disasters

2021

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Understanding the occurrence of natural disasters in regions where the occurrence is high is very important, it is known that the occurrence of disasters associated with intense rains are a source of research in different locations around the globe, being important not only for increasing accuracy of weather forecasting models, but important information for civil defense, where lives can be saved. The increase in the occurrence of natural disasters related to extreme rainfalls has become a problem of large urban centers, such as the city of Rio de Janeiro (CRJ). Thus, the identi cation of homogeneous regions for rainfall distribution (HRRD) becomes essential to identify regions at risks of oods and mass movements. The aim of this research was to identify HRRD in CRJ associated to the risk of natural disasters. The identi cation of homogeneous regions was carried out with the use of monthly rainfall data from 14 pluviometric stations spatially distributed in the study area between 1997 and 2018.Rainfall data were submitted to descriptive statistical analysis, and subsequently to Cluster Analysis.Cluster analysis identi ed 4 homogeneous groups regarding annual rainfall distribution. The result showed relevance regarding physiographic aspects that characterize the rainfall dynamics in CRJ, highlighting areas favorable to the occurrence of natural disasters.

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“…This test is the most appropriate method to assess the significance of possible changes in climate series (Goossens and Berger 1986 ). Several researchers have applied this technique in studies on climate trends in several regions of the globe, including Brazil (Sansigolo et al 2010 ; Carvalho et al 2014 ; Almeida et al 2016 ; Oliveira et al 2017 ; Luiz-Silva et al 2019 ; Regoto et al 2021 ; among others).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate extremes related with rainfall in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a review of climatological characteristics and recorded trends

Silva

Júnior

2022

Nat Hazards

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This paper presents a synthesis of the main characteristics of precipitation in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) based on extreme rainfall indicators. Daily precipitation data are derived from 56 rainfall stations during the second half of the twentieth century and the 2000s. Eight indices related to extreme precipitation were analyzed. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and the Sen's Curvature were employed to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. The primary climatological aspects and identified trends throughout the last decades are discussed, besides the hydrometeorological impacts associated with them. Lower values of annual total precipitation are recorded in northern Rio de Janeiro (around 800 mm) and higher in the southern State (up to 2,200 mm). The Serra do Mar affects the frequency of heavy precipitation, and the areas near the sea and high relief present the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). These areas also showed a high concentration of flood and landslides events. Most of Rio de Janeiro exhibits precipitation intensity of about 13 mm/day. The maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a gradient from the coast (about 30 days) to the State's interior (around 50 days). Regarding trends, there is a growth of accumulated extreme precipitation in various stations near the ocean. The extreme rainfall in 24 h displays an increase in most Rio de Janeiro (+ 1 to + 5 mm/decade). The consecutive dry and rainy days present similar signs of decreasing trends, suggesting irregularly distributed precipitation in the State. This study is especially relevant for decision-makers who need detailed information in the short and long term to prevent natural hazards like floods and landslides and the related impacts in the environmental and socioeconomic sectors of the Rio de Janeiro.

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Observed changes in air temperature and precipitation extremes over Brazil

Cited by 63 publications

References 66 publications

The heat wave of October 2020 in central South America

The heat wave of October 2020 in central South America

Homogeneous regions for rainfall distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro associated with the risk of natural disasters

Climate extremes related with rainfall in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a review of climatological characteristics and recorded trends

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