Climate extremes related with rainfall in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a review of climatological characteristics and recorded trends

Abstract

This paper presents a synthesis of the main characteristics of precipitation in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) based on extreme rainfall indicators. Daily precipitation data are derived from 56 rainfall stations during the second half of the twentieth century and the 2000s. Eight indices related to extreme precipitation were analyzed. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and the Sen's Curvature were employed to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. The primary climatological aspects and identified trends throughout the last decades are discussed, besides the hydrometeorological impacts associated with them. Lower values of annual total precipitation are recorded in northern Rio de Janeiro (around 800 mm) and higher in the southern State (up to 2,200 mm). The Serra do Mar affects the frequency of heavy precipitation, and the areas near the sea and high relief present the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). These areas also showed a high concentration of flood and landslides events. Most of Rio de Janeiro exhibits precipitation intensity of about 13 mm/day. The maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a gradient from the coast (about 30 days) to the State's interior (around 50 days). Regarding trends, there is a growth of accumulated extreme precipitation in various stations near the ocean. The extreme rainfall in 24 h displays an increase in most Rio de Janeiro (+ 1 to + 5 mm/decade). The consecutive dry and rainy days present similar signs of decreasing trends, suggesting irregularly distributed precipitation in the State. This study is especially relevant for decision-makers who need detailed information in the short and long term to prevent natural hazards like floods and landslides and the related impacts in the environmental and socioeconomic sectors of the Rio de Janeiro.

Risk identification of precipitation extremes due to climate change in the southern region of the state of Rio de Janeiro

“…Rx5day is an indicator for the possibility of landslide occurrence, as it represents the maximum rainfall accumulated in 5 consecutive days. According to Luiz- Silva and Júnior (2022) the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). The consecutive extreme precipitation events increase in most regions, nearly doubling for some (Raymond et al, 2022).…”

Changing Urban Temperature and Rainfall Patterns in Jakarta: A Comprehensive Historical Analysis

“…The temperature trend was analyzed using the statistical analysis of Mann-Kendall and the Pettitt's test to identify the change point. Those two statistical tests are non-parametric tests that have been widely used to identify the trend and change points of historical climate and hydrological data [65][66][67]. Furthermore, the monthly maximum daily temperature was prepared to understand the maximum daily temperature trend over a year.…”

A GIS-Based Index of Physical Susceptibility to Flooding as a Tool for Flood Risk Management

“…Based on historical data, the Rx1-day index (annual maximum 1-day precipitation) presents an increasing trend of approximately 10 mm/decade in Rio de Janeiro city [58,64,65]. Considering an average value of this index for the region as 110 mm in the current situation [64,65], the increase will be approximately 20% in 2040.…”

“…Based on historical data, the Rx1-day index (annual maximum 1-day precipitation) presents an increasing trend of approximately 10 mm/decade in Rio de Janeiro city [58,64,65]. Considering an average value of this index for the region as 110 mm in the current situation [64,65], the increase will be approximately 20% in 2040. This rate was used as a reference for a chosen increase of plus 20 percent in all land use runoff values in the imperviousness indicator, representing a shift in runoff patterns promoted by rainfall increase.…”