Observed and predicted precipitation variability across Pakistan with special focus on winter and pre-monsoon precipitation

Safdar, Fasiha; Khokhar, Muhammad Fahim; Mahmood, Fatimah; Khan, Muhammad Zeeshan Ali; Arshad, Muhammad

doi:10.1007/s11356-022-22502-1

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…The monsoons are becoming less frequent but more potent in some parts of South Asia, increasing the likelihood of catastrophic weather events there [20]. Until the middle of the 1980s, there were often no discernible patterns in the amount of winter precipitation in NP [76], but from 1985 to 2005, there was a distinct upward trend. Such growing tendencies are also present in annual data, with positive values dominating the anomalies from the middle of the 1980s to 2016.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The disagreement between observed data and ERA-5 reanalysis datasets in the NP could be due to the complex topography of the region, which can lead to significant orographic effects on precipitation patterns [75]. Additionally, the influence of the South Asian Summer Monsoon and variations in vegetation cover and atmospheric circulation patterns may also contribute to discrepancies between the datasets and due to the combination of factors in NP [76].…”

Section: Spatiotemporal Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Rebi

Hussain

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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The effects of climate change are unparalleled in magnitude, ranging from changing weather patterns that endanger food production to increasing sea levels that increase the likelihood of catastrophic flooding. Therefore, determining the extent of such variations on regional and local scales is imperative. We used monthly precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in northern Pakistan (NP) to document the observed changes in seasonal and annual precipitation. The station density in the NP is small and unevenly distributed; therefore, ERA-5 reanalysis data were used to supplement the observed dataset to assess the spatial trends in NP. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK), Sen’s Slope estimator (SSE), and Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) tests were performed to assess the trends. In addition, the wavelet analysis technique was used to determine the association of precipitation with various oceanic indices from 1960 to 2016. Results indicate that maximum precipitation was shown in the annual and summer seasons. In NP, annual, winter, spring, and summer precipitation declined, while an increase in autumn was observed at a rate of 0.43 mm/decade between 1989 and 2016. The spatial trends for observed and ERA-5 reanalysis datasets were almost similar in winter, spring, and autumn; however, some disagreement was observed in both datasets in the summer and annual precipitation trends in NP during 1960–2016. Between 1989 and 2016, summer and annual precipitation increased significantly in Region III. However, seasonal and annual precipitation decreased in NP between 1960 and 2016. Moreover, there were no prominent trends in annual precipitation until the mid-1980s, but an apparent increase from 1985 onwards. Annual precipitation increased in all elevations except at the 500–1000 m zone. The ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) shared notable interannual coherences among all indices above 16–64 months. Inter-decadal coherence with the ENSO, AO (Arctic Oscillation), and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in NP for 128 months and above. Generally, AO, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) exhibited less coherence with precipitation in NP. The regression of seasonal and annual precipitation revealed that winter and spring precipitation levels had higher linear regression with the AO and ENSO, respectively, while both the AO and ENSO also dominated at the annual scale. Similarly, the IOD and PDO indices had a higher influence in summer precipitation. The findings may help water resource managers and climate researchers develop a contingency plan for better water resource management policies in the face of changing climate change in Pakistan, particularly in NP.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Spatiotemporal Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Rebi

Hussain

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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“…The peak winter precipitation is in Pakistan's northern, northwestern, and southwestern regions, and it decreases in the eastern, southeastern, coastal, and arid regions [19]. Safdar et al [20] found a decrease in winter precipitation with a marked decrease in the number of rainy days concluding a temporal shift to the pre-monsoon season from winter. Hunt et al [21] found that the current emission rates (RCP 8.5) will lead to a decrease in westerlies precipitation by the end of the 21st century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018

Abbas

Ullah

Ullah³

et al. 2023

Water

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Winter (December to March) precipitation is the major source of rainfed agriculture, storage, and perennial water flow in the western river system of Pakistan. Hence, this study uses precipitation data and variables of land–ocean and atmosphere from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and fifth-generation reanalysis data (ERA5), respectively, to investigate the changes in winter precipitation and its sensitivity to different land–ocean and atmosphere variables, which are rarely investigated in Pakistan. Non-parametric techniques, such as the modified Mann–Kendal, Sen slope, kernel density-based probability function (PDF), empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and correlation analysis, were used to assess the changes and modes of variability in winter precipitation. The overall seasonal precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend with a (−0.1 mm d−1 yr−1) in the seasonal mean and monthly precipitation, except in February which showed a significant increase (>0.11 mm d−1 yr−1). The highest decrease in daily precipitation (<−0.1 mm d−1 yr−1) was in the north, with a moderate decrease in the southeast. The extreme precipitation indices exhibited an erratic decreasing tendency, but the maximum daily precipitation index increased; post-2000 precipitation extremes displayed an increase, and the seasonal and monthly precipitation exhibited the highest deviations during the drought period (1995–2000). The leading precipitation mode (EOF1) is sensitive to the local land surface processes and significantly correlated (>0.60) with the central Pacific and Indian Ocean’s basin-wide sea surface temperature, corroborating the influence of ENSO-induced meridional/zonal deviation of Hadley–Walker circulations. The Hadley and Walker cells affect the south-westerlies’ jet stream strength, impacting the water vapor transport and precipitation over Pakistan. These changes in the precipitation magnitude will affect rain-fed agriculture, especially the Rabi cropping pattern and perennial river flow.

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“…However, as in Fig. 22, other studies reporting a significant decline in winter precipitation across regions of north India and Pakistan have measured their trends over comparatively short periods (∼40 years) (Shekhar et al, 2010;Zaz et al, 2019;Ullah et al, 2022;Abbas et al, 2023;Safdar et al, 2023) and so may instead be detecting a mode of interdecadal variability. Such studies typically invoke declining WD frequency and shifts in subtropical jet position as the cause of these trends, as did Gunturu and Kumar (2021), who argued that a recent decline in WDs has been responsible for reduced cloud cover and increased fog over the recent decades.…”

Section: Changing Impactsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments

Hunt,

Baudouin,

Turner

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over Western India, they share some dynamical features with extratropical cyclones. WDs are most common during the boreal winter (December to March), during which they bring the majority of precipitation – both rain and snow – to the Western Himalaya, as well as to surrounding areas of north India, Pakistan and the Tibetan Plateau. WDs are also associated with weather hazards such as heavy snowfall, hailstorms, fog, cloudbursts, avalanches, frost, and coldwaves. In this paper, we review the recent understanding and development on WDs. Recent studies have collectively made use of novel data, novel analysis techniques, and the increasing availability of high-resolution weather and climate models. This review is separated into six main sections – structure and thermodynamics, precipitation and impacts, teleconnections, modelling experiments, forecasting at a range of scales, and paleoclimate and climate change – each motivated with a brief discussion of the accomplishments and limitations of previous research. A number of step changes in understanding are synthesised. Use of new modelling frameworks and tracking algorithms has significantly improved knowledge of WD structure and variability, and a more frequentist approach can now be taken. Improved observation systems have helped quantification of water security over the Western Himalaya. Convection-permitting models have improved our understanding of how WDs interact with the Himalayas to trigger natural hazards. Improvements in paleoclimate and future climate modelling experiments have helped to explain how WDs and their impacts over the Himalaya respond to large-scale natural and anthropogenic forcings. We end by summarising unresolved questions and outlining key future WD research topics.

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Observed and predicted precipitation variability across Pakistan with special focus on winter and pre-monsoon precipitation

Cited by 12 publications

References 66 publications

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018

Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments

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