Monsoon rainfall is the principle source of fresh water essential for agricultural practices and human sustenance in the Indian subcontinent during summer. is study is primarily designed to analyse the extent of rainfall and temperature variations in Pakistan over the northern monsoon belt by using satellite and ground-based observations. e satellite gridded data for rainfall are acquired from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) along with rainfall and temperature data from 15 ground stations of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Data were analysed to identify changes in climatic parameters and spatiotemporal shift in monsoon precipitation in Pakistan. Analysis shows that there is significant correlation between TRMM and PMD datasets. Decrease in monsoon rainfall is observed during the last two decades. A more pronounced decrease is observed in monsoon rainfall during the years 2010-2017, i.e., 17.58 mm/year accompanied by 0.18°C increase in temperature. A southward spatial shift in monsoon rainfall occurrence (rainfall ≥2.5 mm/day) is observed while an eastward shift in moderate to heavy monsoon rainfall is identified. is study may be helpful for an agricultural country like Pakistan which is heavily dependent on monsoon rainfalls for assessing the impacts of changing monsoon season and to adapt towards changing climate.
Precipitation is the main source of fresh water in the water cycle. Climate change, because of global warming and the consequent change in the water cycle, is a global security issue. It would significantly influence water and food security. Disasters such as floods and droughts would lead to an adverse effect on the economy, peace, and geo-political situation around the world. In the present study, the change in precipitation patterns at Gwadar port is quantified in the context of climate change since it is the crown jewel in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as well as a vital part of One Belt One Road (OBOR) project. A data set of 40 years (1979-2018) is analyzed utilizing Mann-Kendall (MK) technique for precipitation trend detection, and Multi-Linear Regression Analysis (MLR) to develop a model of the study area. The model presents the potential determinants causing the variability in the precipitation patterns of the selected region. The model developed accounts for 80.47% (51.16%) of precipitation variability. The model successfully passed all estimation tests. This research will help the policymakers in legislation. The research also addresses United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG): SDG# 13 (Climate Action).
This study utilizes ground, satellite and model data to investigate the observed and future precipitation changes in Pakistan. Pakistan Meteorological Department’s (PMD) monthly precipitation data set along with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) monthly dataset TRMM_3B43 (0.25˚x0.25˚ resolution) have been used to evaluate rainfall trends over the climatic zones of Pakistan through Man-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator for the time period 1978-2018. Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) projections have been employed to explore the projected changes in precipitation till 2099. Furthermore, TRMM and CCSM4 projections have been correlated and validated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE). There is a good correlation between TRMM and PMD ground observation at all stations of the country for all seasons, with correlation coefficient values ranging from 0.89 (November) to 0.97 (July and August). The study shows a decreasing trend in winter precipitation in all zones of the country with a significant decrease over western mountains i.e. zone C of the country. During 2008-2018, a sharp decrease in winter precipitation is observed as compared to the baseline value of 1978-2007 in all climatic zones. There seems to be a shift in precipitation from winter towards pre-monsoon season as pre-monsoon precipitation in last 11 years increased in all zones except Zone C. Coherently, there is a decrease in area affected by winter precipitation and an increase in area for pre-monsoon precipitation. Future precipitation estimates from CCSM4 model for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 over-estimate precipitation in most parts of the country for the first 9 observed years (2010-2018) and predict a rise in precipitation by 2099 which is more pronounced in the northern and western Pakistan while a decrease is predicted for the plains of the country, which might have negative consequences for agriculture.
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