Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic

Abstract

Recent drought and a surge in days with weather conditions conducive to wildfire occurrence during 2015-2019 reminded the Czech Republic that it is not immune to this type of natural hazard. Although Central Europe has not been at the center of such events, observed climate data and climate projections suggest a tendency toward more years with wet and mild winters and dry and hot summers. To fill the existing knowledge gap, we used an ensemble of 9 fuel aridity metrics, including 3 dedicated fire weather indices, and evaluated their level of agreement with actual fire occurrence and their temporal trends. The analysis included peri-urban zones of the 36 largest cities and towns in the Czech Republic (home of 3.8 million inhabitants) and the 29 largest protected areas (covering 13.7% of the territory). Fire weather climatology, based on both the Fire Weather Index and the Forest Fire Danger Index, agreed well with the long-term frequency of fires both in peri-urban zones and within protected areas. Future projections based on regional and global model ensembles indicated a significant increase in fuel aridity and an increase in the area affected by fire-conducive conditions both around urban areas and within protected regions. In particular, the area affected by days with very high risk fire weather conditions is likely to increase significantly relative to the past 60 yr. However, the magnitude of the projected change depends to a large degree on the selected fire weather metric and whether RCM- or GCM-based scenarios are used.

A combination of human activity and climate drives forest fire occurrence in Central Europe: case of the Czech Republic

“…2; Additional le 3). Studies by Trnka et al (2020) and Možný et al (2021) found a strong climatic signal in forest re occurrence in Central Europe, which also supports the use of forest re numbers as an adequate and responsive indicator of the regional re regime.…”

“…Both population density and numbers of overnight tourists have been related to the numbers of forest res in other studies ( Wildland-urban interface dynamics have been receiving increased recognition globally because of the accelerating expansion of urban areas as well as the increasing wildland-urban interface length (Jenerette et al 2022). Increased re hazard is related to increased human activity in wildlands (Spyratos et al 2007, Trnka et al 2020Ganteaume et al 2021). The wildland-urban interface was found to be behind several noticeable effects, such as winter re progression and a moderate increase in re incidence linked to human-caused res (e.g., Rodrigues et al 2020).…”

“…We aimed to identify drivers of forest re ignition in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) in the period 2006 to 2015, placing equal emphasis on landscape, social, and climatic drivers. Contrary to most previous studies, which mainly addressed the effect of climate (Trnka et al 2020(Trnka et al , 2021, we sought to reach more profound insights by considering factors such as population density, tourism, and wildland-urban interface, which are hypothesized to be associated with re ignition and spread in the region. This information will allow for a more robust re danger assessment and forecasts by considering coupled effects of climate change and ongoing socio-ecological transformations.…”

Longer Growing Seasons Cause Hydrological Regime Shifts in Central European Forests

“…Recently, it seems that the resilience of uplands has been breached and production forests are dying. This can already be seen with for example, bark beetle calamities [79], forest dieback [70], and possibly fire [80]. The scale and extent of these calamities is alarming.…”

Present Climate Change as a Threat to Geoheritage: The Wildfire in Bohemian Switzerland National Park and Its Use in Place-Based Learning

“…In 2022, forest fires across Europe impacted around 8600 km 2 [20]. Central Europe belonged to relatively safe regions, but the situation has changed in the last decade [32,33]. Specifically in Germany, during the summer of 2022, approximately 10 km 2 of coniferous forests were ablaze in a military zone near Nuremberg.…”