A combination of human activity and climate drives forest fire occurrence in Central Europe: case of the Czech Republic

Abstract

Background Central Europe is not a typical wildfire region; however, an increasingly warm and dry climate and model-based projections indicate that the number of forest fires are increasing. This study provides new insights into the drivers of forest fire occurrence in the Czech Republic, during the period 2006 to 2015, by focusing on climate, land cover, and human activity factors. Results The average annual number of forest fires during the study period was 728, with a median burned area of 0.01 ha. Forest fire incidence showed distinct spring (April) and summer (July to August) peaks,with median burned areas of 0.04 ha and 0.005 ha, respectively. Relationships between the predictors (climate data, forest-related data, socioeconomic data, and landscape-context data) and the number of forest fires in individual municipality districts were analyzed using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) on three time scales (annually, monthly, and during the summer season). The constructed GAMs explained 48.7 and 53.8% of forest firevariability when fire occurrence was analyzedon a monthly scale and during thesummer season, respectively. On an annual scale, the models explained 71.4% of the observed forest fire variability. The number of forest fires was related to the number of residents and overnight tourists in the area. The effect of climate was manifested on monthly and summer season scales only, with warmer and drier conditions associated with higher forest fire frequency. A higher proportion of conifers and the length of the wildland–urban interface were also positively associated with forest fire occurrence. Conclusions Forest fire occurrence was influenced by a combination of climatic, forest-related, and social activity factors. The effect of climate was most pronounced on a monthly scale, corresponding with the presence of two distinct seasonal peaks of forest fire occurrence. The significant effect of factors related to human activity suggests that measures to increasepublic awareness about fire risk and targeted activity regulation are essential in controlling the risk of fire occurrence in Central Europe. An increasing frequency of fire-conducive weather, forest structure transformations due to excessive tree mortality, and changing patterns of human activity on the landscape require permanent monitoring and assessment of possible shifts of forest fire risk.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Forest Fires in Poland and Consequences for Fire Protection Systems: Seeking a Balance between Efficiency and Costs

“…Similarly, in Poland, Q2 included 51.5% of the total annual number of fires. Differences can be seen in the winter months: in the Czech Republic, about 10% of fires broke out in Q4 and Q1 [7,8], while in Poland, fires during these quarters made up 29% of the total number, not to mention that the average burned area of fires in winter is higher than in other periods of the year. However, it is difficult to state clearly what the reasons for these differences may be; they are probably due to the lower preparedness of firefighting services in the winter as a result of the forest fire risk level not being calculated during this period [15], as it is calculated only in the fire season.…”

“…Depending on the KZPL and SZPL risk categories, the regulations [15] specify observation At the same time, there is temporal and spatial differentiation in the number of forest fires, resulting from changing fire regimes. In the Czech Republic, the largest number of fires occurs in spring (April, May) and summer (July to August) [7,8]. Summer is the most dangerous period in Greece, as most fires occur in July and August [9].…”