Observed and estimated atmospheric thermodynamic instability using radiosonde observations over the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Silva, Fabricio Polifke da; Filho, Otto Corrêa Rotunno; Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez Justi da; Sampaio, Rafael João; Pires, Gisele Dornelles; Araújo, Afonso Augusto Magalhães de

doi:10.1007/s00703-019-00688-3

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…After the start of precipitation, we verified the main changes in wind direction at lower atmospheric levels. At 850 hPa, we can observe the presence of the northeast component, suggesting the presence of the South Atlantic Subtropical High over the region, which can also be responsible for bringing moist air from the Atlantic Ocean and give support for the rainfall maintenance (Bonnet et al 2018;Silva et al 2020). Given this perceived pattern, operational forecasters could have in mind this wind behavior over the region of Macaé city.…”

Section: Mean Temporal Evaluations Of the Atmospheric Parametersmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Thunderstorms are weather events formed from the development of cumulonimbus clouds, and they are associated with an unstable atmospheric environment in the presence of a dynamic and kinematic trigger (Doswell 1987(Doswell , 2001Emanuel 1994;Silva et al 2019). Also, when embedded in a favorable large-scale synoptic environment, convective cells can produce heavy rainfall and natural disasters, such as landslides and floods (Kunz 2007;Davolio et al 2009;Silva et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of rainfall and atmospheric parameters during afternoon summer storms over Macaé city (Brazil) using WRF numerical model

Silva

et al. 2021

Bull. of Atmos. Sci.& Technol.

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Forecasting summer storms requires addressing critical atmospheric conditions to determine the potential of their development and further evolution. However, due to the high degree of variability in the development of the storms, their early detection still represents a challenge to the operational forecasters and scientific community. In this context, this study endeavored to evaluate the rainfall and atmospheric parameters simulated by the Weather, Research, and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model using three grid domains (27 km, 09 km, and 03 km). This study proposed an evaluation of precipitation and atmospheric parameters for ten summer storm events over Macaé city during the austral summer of 2020 and 2021, as initially reported by local observers. The synoptic chart data showed that the local effects, the frontal systems passages, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) were related to the storms observed. From the qualitative evaluation of the precipitation simulated by WRF, we found higher values over the mountainous region of Macaé city and lower values downstream. The quantitative assessment showed that the WRF model could reproduce the hourly rainfall development, although with a tendency of underestimation compared to the observations. The mean temporal evolution of atmospheric variables over Macaé city corroborated the importance of the joint analyses of thermodynamic and dynamic parameters and the increase of horizontal grid resolution to represent better the environment favorable to storm development.

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Section: Mean Temporal Evaluations Of the Atmospheric Parametersmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of rainfall and atmospheric parameters during afternoon summer storms over Macaé city (Brazil) using WRF numerical model

Silva

et al. 2021

Bull. of Atmos. Sci.& Technol.

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“…Local severe storm can produce very high rainfall rates and its detection still remains a challenge to forecast (Alfieri et al 2012;Buzzi et al 2013;Silva et al 2017Silva et al , 2020a. This meteorological event is characterized by a much reduced spatiotemporal scale and is triggered by very local atmospheric conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-time river level estimation based on variations of radar reflectivity—a case study of the Quitandinha River watershed, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

Silva

Filho

Silva

et al. 2021

Bull. of Atmos. Sci.& Technol.

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The real-time warning for flash floods represents one of the major challenges for monitoring centers and civil defenses due to the short time frame in which such phenomena occur. That situation often takes place particularly in mountainous regions where high slope rate favors an increase in the velocity of the water flow and it might generate conditions to impact the water level due to potential for provoking erosion, landslides, and debris flow. An initial one new and unique prototype of hydrometeorological relationship for real-time, site-tunable, water level for flash flood prediction is presented. Time variations of the reflectivity measured by horizontal polarization radar are evaluated and correlated to generate the local estimate of the elevation of the Quitandinha River water level for the next hour. The proposal of this relationship is not intended to act as a simplified hydraulic model but to characterize if a critical elevation of the water level could be obtained from the radar reflectivity data and consequently whether the flash flooding event should be expected. We verified that the proposed relationship that tended to underestimate the water level peaks, however, qualitatively was initially able to indicate if a flood event could occur or not in the next hour. The expectation related to this initial relationship is to improve the obtained results in order to be used as a tool for decisionmaking in relation to the issuance of warnings delivered by environmental monitoring centers.

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Extreme rainfall events in the Rio de Janeiro city (Brazil): description and a numerical sensitivity case study

Silva

2022

Meteorol Atmos Phys

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Observed and estimated atmospheric thermodynamic instability using radiosonde observations over the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Cited by 8 publications

References 64 publications

Evaluation of rainfall and atmospheric parameters during afternoon summer storms over Macaé city (Brazil) using WRF numerical model

Evaluation of rainfall and atmospheric parameters during afternoon summer storms over Macaé city (Brazil) using WRF numerical model

Real-time river level estimation based on variations of radar reflectivity—a case study of the Quitandinha River watershed, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

Extreme rainfall events in the Rio de Janeiro city (Brazil): description and a numerical sensitivity case study

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