Numerical Simulations of a Dam Overflowing. Case Study: “La Esperanza” Dam in Hidalgo, Mexico. Implications for Risk Evaluation

Flooding hazard assessment at Tulancingo (Hidalgo, Mexico)

“…Peak inflow values obtained from the hydrographs are quite similar to those calculated by Areu‐Rangel et al (). Accordingly, probabilities associated to the overflow scenarios, do not vary significantly.…”

“…The numerical reconstruction was based on the consideration that the storage capacity of the dam has been reduced due to accumulation of sediments and it is in a critical full condition, so that any reconstructed inflow scenario can be considered as a possible overflow scenario. Results of the hydrological study returned peak inflow values, for six return periods, which do not differ significantly from those presented in Areu‐Rangel et al () using analytical methods. Reconstructed overflow scenarios have high occurrence probabilities that increase as the return period increases.…”

“…In Areu‐Rangel et al () the authors calculated the probability of overflow of the dam on the basis of various scenarios of peak inflow. These scenarios were calculated applying the Triangular Unit Hydrograph theory, a simplification to the synthetic Unit Hydrographs proposed by Mockous ().…”

“…The methodology of this study is as follows: we defined the numerical model with corresponding assumptions using the software IBER for turbulent‐free surface flows (in Section The IBER numerical model ); we modified the hydrologic study performed in Areu‐Rangel et al () by numerically constructing the hydrographs characteristics of the dam's basin, for different return periods (in Section Hydrological model of ‘La Esperanza’ dam's basin ); we obtained different flooding scenarios that were used for the calculation of inundation waterdepths in the study area (in Section Numerical simulations of inundation scenarios ); we constructed flooding hazard maps for the municipality of Tulancingo (in Section Flooding hazard maps ); and we calculated occurrence probability of the considered inundation events (in Section Probability of inundation events ).…”

“…Nowadays ‘La Esperanza’ dam is near the end of its designed life and its overflowing risk is high. In a recent work of Areu‐Rangel et al (), the authors calculated dam's overflowing probability using a defined relation between the storage capacity of the dam and the amount of water received by the dam due to precipitation events.…”