Numerical simulation of seasonal distribution of precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean with a RCM

Krichak, S. O.; Alpert, Pinhas; Kunin, Pavel

doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0649-x

Cited by 21 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…It is located in a transitional zone between the influence of midlatitude and tropical processes. Important in the coastal zone of the region are the heavy precipitation events mostly associated with landfall of baroclinic systems and influenced by local topography [ Krichak et al , 2009]. The observed annual mean precipitation amount of the period 1961–1990 in area of the investigation area GL is 255 mm.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution climate change simulations for the Jordan River area

2011

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[1] For the estimation of future climate conditions in the Jordan River region, the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Penn State University meteorology model in the versions 3.5 and 3.7 driven with boundary data from the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and Hadley Centre global circulation models and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B emission scenario has been used. The spatial resolution of the nested dynamic downscaling approach was 18.6 km, and the transient runs were performed for the period 1960-2099. The investigated statistics include mean precipitation, frequency and intensity of wet days and strong precipitation events, as well as mean temperature and heat wave duration index. The results show that the models satisfactorily reproduce the mean temperature and precipitation patterns. The comparison with the observational reference for the period 1961-1990 reveals a bias in the annual mean precipitation ranging from −20% to +17%, with an ensemble mean of −3%. The models show limitations in reproducing the precipitation seasonality. All models underestimate the wet day frequency and show differences in the strong precipitation events. The simulations of the future climate signal indicate an ensemble mean increase of the annual mean temperature of approximately 2.1 K in the period 2031-2060 and 3.7 K for the period 2070-2099 related to the 1961-1991 mean. In the same periods, the annual mean precipitation is simulated to decrease by approximately −11.5% and −20%, respectively, which means a reduction of expected water availability in the Jordan River region. All models show an increase of the heat wave duration index. A significant elevation dependence is present in the simulated future climate signal on both temperature and precipitation. The simulations show an increased coefficient of variation in annual precipitation, indicating that larger interannual precipitation variability can be expected in the future.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution climate change simulations for the Jordan River area

2011

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“…The Black Sea basin is comparatively wet in summer. The thermal low centered over Persian Gulf that is a branch of the Asian monsoon low also influences the southern parts of the region by bringing dryer air from over Asian continent (Rohling and Hilgen 1991;Krichak et al 2010). Large-scale circulation patterns and atmospheric teleconnections also play an important role in determining general climate characteristics of the EMBS region.…”

Section: Climate Of the Regionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Downscaled simulations of the ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3 global models for the eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region: evaluation of the reference period

et al. 2011

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The outputs of three GCMs, ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3, are downscaled for the eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region for the period 1961-1990 using a regional climate model, RegCM3, to assess the capability of these models in simulating the climatology of the region. In addition, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data are also downscaled for the same period to display the performance of the regional climate model for the same region, which constitutes a relatively complex terrain and rich variety of climates. The gridded observational dataset of CRU is primarily used in the evaluation of the models, however, a regional dataset, which is based on a relatively dense gauging network, is also used to see how it affects the performance measures of the models. The reanalysis simulation indicates that RegCM3 is able to simulate the precipitation and surface temperature as well as the upper level fields reasonably well. However, it tends to overestimate the precipitation over the mountainous areas. All three GCM models are found to be highly skilled in simulating the winter precipitation and temperature in the region. The two models, ECHAM5 and HadCM3, are also good at simulating the summer precipitation and temperature, but the CCSM3 simulation generates dryer and warmer conditions than the observations for the whole region, which are most likely a result of the dryness in the upper levels of the original outputs. The use of the regional observational dataset does not necessarily improve the pattern correlations, but it yields better match between the modeled and observed precipitation in terms of variability and root-mean-square difference. It could be said that the outputs of these GCMs can be used in the climate change downscaling and impact assessment studies for the region, given that their strengths and weaknesses that are displayed in the present study are considered.

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“…In the present study, we apply the emission scenario A1B, which describes a world with a very rapid economic growth and where energy is generated both from fossil fuels and from alternative energy sources (IPCC, 2007). Three combinations of a GCM and RCM, prepared within the GLOWA Jordan River Project (http: //www.glowa-jordan-river.de/), were considered: ECHAM5-MM5 and HadCM3-MM5 delivered from the Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research -Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) in Karlsruhe, Germany, and ECHAM5-RegCM3 (Krichak et al, 2010 delivered from the Tel Aviv University (TAU), Israel. Not all RCMs are appropriate for each region (Krichak et al, 2010).…”

Section: T Törnros and L Menzel: Addressing Drought Conditions Undementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Three combinations of a GCM and RCM, prepared within the GLOWA Jordan River Project (http: //www.glowa-jordan-river.de/), were considered: ECHAM5-MM5 and HadCM3-MM5 delivered from the Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research -Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) in Karlsruhe, Germany, and ECHAM5-RegCM3 (Krichak et al, 2010 delivered from the Tel Aviv University (TAU), Israel. Not all RCMs are appropriate for each region (Krichak et al, 2010). The applied RCMs, however, have been adapted and optimized for the eastern Mediterranean region (Krichak et al, 2005(Krichak et al, , 2007.…”

Section: T Törnros and L Menzel: Addressing Drought Conditions Undementioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

Törnros

Menzel

2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescalesfor example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6-month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semiarid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.

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Numerical simulation of seasonal distribution of precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean with a RCM

Cited by 21 publications

References 52 publications

High-resolution climate change simulations for the Jordan River area

High-resolution climate change simulations for the Jordan River area

Downscaled simulations of the ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3 global models for the eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region: evaluation of the reference period

Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

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