Numerical investigation of an extreme storm with the Canadian Regional Climate Model: the case study of windstorm VIVIAN , Switzerland, February 27, 1990

Goyette, Stéphane; Beniston, Martin; Caya, Daniel; Laprise, René; Jungo, Patricia

doi:10.1007/s003820100166

Cited by 36 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…The synoptic evolution, dynamics and impacts of many of these storms have been analysed in detail by various authors: e.g. Vivian (Goyette et al 2001), Lothar (Wernli et al 2002;Rivière et al 2010), Kyrill ), Klaus (Liberato et al 2011Rivière et al 2014) and Xynthia (Rivière et al 2012;Ludwig et al 2014). They belong to a class of storms that is essential for climate models to reproduce satisfactorily in order to allow reliable estimates of future storm risk.…”

Section: Storm Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

et al. 2015

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times, and horizontal and vertical resolutions. These runs are then compared to re-analysis data. The main conclusions from this work are: (a) objectively identified cyclone tracks are represented satisfactorily by most hindcasts; (b) sensitivity to vertical resolution is low; (c) cyclone depth is systematically under-predicted for a coarse resolution of T63 by both climate models; (d) no systematic bias is found for the higher resolution of T127 out to about three days, demonstrating that climate models are in fact able to represent the complex dynamics of explosively deepening cyclones well, if given the correct initial conditions; (e) an analysis using a recently developed diagnostic tool based on the surface pressure tendency equation points to too weak diabatic processes, mainly latent heating, as the main source for the under-prediction in the coarse-resolution runs. Finally, an interesting implication of these results is that the too low number of deep cyclones in many freerunning climate simulations may therefore be related to an insufficient number of storm-prone initial conditions. This question will be addressed in future work.

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Section: Storm Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

et al. 2015

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“…Data were transformed at a spectral T32/L12 resolution, extending from 1000 hPa to 10 hPa, with an archival period of 6 h. Denis et al (2003) have shown that this spatial and temporal resolution of the flow fields is adequate for driving the model, and for realistic smallscale simulated features of the fields to further develop. The modelling approach used to downscale the windstorms is designed as operating in "one-way", and the CRCM uses the multiple self-nesting methodology on a number of collocated grids, accurately capturing the wind speed and direction in an optimal fashion (Benoit et al, 1997;Goyette et al, 2001). The December windstorm was simulated on four embedded computational grids at 60, 20, 5, and 2 km grid spacing referred to as domain A, B, C, and D respectively (Fig.…”

Section: Numerical Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…6). More details on the grid configuration and on the different vertical-level distributions are found in Goyette et al (2001).…”

Section: Numerical Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regional climate models (RCMs) using multiple nesting techniques driven by reanalysis data has shown genuine skill to downscale windstorms over complex terrain such as the February 27, 1990 "Vivian", and the December 26, 1999 "Lothar" storms over Switzerland as well as over the smoother terrain of Belgium (Goyette et al, 2001;Goyette et al, 2003). The modelling approach uses a self-nesting methodology to downscale from the coarse input resolution to the high-resolution output that captures the wind speed and direction (Benoit et al, 1997;Goyette et al, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The modelling approach uses a self-nesting methodology to downscale from the coarse input resolution to the high-resolution output that captures the wind speed and direction (Benoit et al, 1997;Goyette et al, 2001). Recently, a physically-based parameterisation for diagnostic "on-line" computation of wind gusts have been implemented in the Canadian RCM, CRCM hereinafter (Goyette et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Relating forest damage data to the wind field from high-resolution RCM simulations: Case study of Anatol striking Sweden in December 1999

Nilsson

Goyette

Bärring

2007

Global and Planetary Change

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Forestry is of major economical importance in Europe, and recent devastating windstorms have pinpointed the vulnerability of this economic sector to windstorms. Forest damage is an important economic issue at a country level and may become even of larger concern under future conditions following global warming. An underlying question is to what extent the storm damage is due to changes in the wind climate compared to the effect of changes in forest management practices? In this paper, the first part of this rather complex problem is tackled.By using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, CRCM, including a physically based gust parameterisation scheme, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis wind fields for the windstorm Anatol, on December 3-4, 1999, were downscaled, into a nested set-up, to 2 km resolution. The aim is to relate the simulated storm wind field to the observed distribution of storm damaged forests in Scania in southern Sweden, as a first methodological step towards analysing the effect of future windstorms in Swedish forests at the highest spatial resolution one can afford nowadays.Our results show that the CRCM produced realistic wind field simulations, compared to station observations, of the windstorm event in 1999. The simulated winds were underestimated at the coasts, but in congruence with inland observations. Most of the damaged forest stands were located on south-westerly (SW) slopes, which indicated a south-westerly wind during the wind throw process. This SW wind direction was evident in the early phase of the simulated storm, but then changed into a westerly flow, at an earlier stage than the true observations specified. Further, most damage occurred in the areas of simulated maximum wind speed greater than 30 m s − 1 .To conclude, the CRCM has proven to be a useful tool to realistically simulate a forest damaging storm event. Hence, the model could be used for further study cases, preferably driven by a GCM, in order to reveal a greater understanding about recent storms, which in turn helps us evaluate future climate change driven storm conditions.

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Can dynamically downscaled windstorm footprints be improved by observations through a probabilistic approach?

2014

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Windstorms are a main feature of the European climate and exert strong socioeconomic impacts. Large effort has been made in developing and enhancing models to simulate the intensification of windstorms, resulting footprints, and associated impacts. Simulated wind or gust speeds usually differ from observations, as regional climate models have biases and cannot capture all local effects. An approach to adjust regional climate model (RCM) simulations of wind and wind gust toward observations is introduced. For this purpose, 100 windstorms are selected and observations of 173 (111) test sites of the German Weather Service are considered for wind (gust) speed. Theoretical Weibull distributions are fitted to observed and simulated wind and gust speeds, and the distribution parameters of the observations are interpolated onto the RCM computational grid. A probability mapping approach is applied to relate the distributions and to correct the modeled footprints. The results are not only achieved for single test sites but for an area-wide regular grid. The approach is validated using root-mean-square errors on event and site basis, documenting that the method is generally able to adjust the RCM output toward observations. For gust speeds, an improvement on 88 of 100 events and at about 64% of the test sites is reached. For wind, 99 of 100 improved events and~84% improved sites can be obtained. This gives confidence on the potential of the introduced approach for many applications, in particular those considering wind data.

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Numerical investigation of an extreme storm with the Canadian Regional Climate Model: the case study of windstorm VIVIAN , Switzerland, February 27, 1990

Cited by 36 publications

References 18 publications

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

Relating forest damage data to the wind field from high-resolution RCM simulations: Case study of Anatol striking Sweden in December 1999

Can dynamically downscaled windstorm footprints be improved by observations through a probabilistic approach?

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