Numerical avalanche prediction: Kootenay Pass, British Columbia, Canada

Abstract

ABSTRACT. A numerical avalanche-prediction scheme was developed for highway applications at Kootenay Pass, British Columbia. The model features parametric discriminant analysis using Bayesian statistics to predict avalanche occurrences. Cluster techniques are then employed in discriminant space to analyze avalanche occurrences by the method of nearest neighbours. Extensive numerical testing of the model using an historical data base indicates that prediction accuracy may be 70% or better for both avalanche and non-avalanche time intervals.

The effects of El Niño and La Niña on snow and avalanche patterns in British Columbia, Canada, and central Chile

“…Temperature effects on avalanche forecasting have been analyzed extensively at both Kootenay Pass (McClung and Tweedy, 1994) and Bear Pass (Floyer, 2003;Floyer and McClung, 2003). The results of the forecasting temperature analyses are in excellent correspondence with the snow and avalanche patterns in this paper and the results of Stahl and others (2006).…”

“…At Kootenay Pass, temperature is not a significant predictor for dry avalanches (McClung and Tweedy, 1994). Most of the avalanches here are dry (Table 1).…”

Snow and weather climatic control on snow avalanche occurrence fluctuations over 50 yr in the French Alps

“…McClung and Tweedy, 1994;Gassner and Brabec, 2002;Schirmer et al, 2009). These approaches have also been used to define homogenous zones in terms of avalanche activity (Mock and Birkeland, 2000) and/or snowpack characteristics (Haegeli and McClung, 2007).…”

Long-term avalanche hazard assessment with a Bayesian depth-averaged propagation model

“…In the avalanche community, simple Bayesian computations have received some attention in the past (McClung and Tweedy, 1994;Harbitz and others, 2001). Interest in Bayesian methods for snow avalanche science has grown recently (Ancey, 2005;Straub and Grêt-Regamey, 2006;Eckert and others, 2007b, in press), but their use remains relatively new in this field and is limited to simple propagation models.…”