The effects of El Niño and La Niña on snow and avalanche patterns in British Columbia, Canada, and central Chile

McClung, D. M.

doi:10.3189/2013jog12j192

Cited by 28 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Summarizing the nature of avalanche hazard this way has the potential to open new opportunities for studying the effects of large-scale climate oscillations and climate change on avalanche hazard that complements the perspectives of existing research in this area. Most of the existing studies on the effect of atmospheric oscillations on avalanche hazard (Dixon et al, 1999;Fitzharris, 1987;Keylock, 2003;McClung, 2013;Reardon et al, 2008;Thumlert et al, 2014) and climate change on avalanche hazard (Bellaire et al, 2016;Castebrunet et al, 2012;Jamieson et al, 2017;Laternser and Schneebeli, 2002;Lazar and Williams, 2008;Sinickas et al, 2016) have focused on examining trends in historical avalanche activity records. While avalanche activity along transportation corridors is tightly monitored, variations in avalanche control practices can make it difficult to attribute observed changes to long-term changes in winter weather conditions (Bellaire et al, 2016;Jamieson et al, 2017;Sinickas et al, 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

Shandro

Haegeli

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study inter-seasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/2010 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al. (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada has created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using selforganizing maps (SOMs) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the inter-seasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

Shandro

Haegeli

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…[ Beniston , ; Adam et al , ; Bebi et al , ; Keiler et al , ; Stoffel and Huggel , ]. Climate change is therefore likely to influence the occurrence of damage due to avalanches; however, the exact trend remains undecided and will be highly dependent on the region concerned [ Lavigne et al , ; Castebrunet et al , ; McClung , ]. Some studies have concluded that there is no clear correlation between the frequency of extreme events and climatic conditions [ Schneebeli et al , ; Eckert et al , ], whereas others have provided evidence that the runout distance of extreme avalanches has decreased since the mid‐1970s [ Eckert et al , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of glide avalanches and snow gliding

Ancey

Bain²

2015

Reviews of Geophysics

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In recent years, due to warmer snow cover, there has been a significant increase in the number of cases of damage caused by gliding snowpacks and glide avalanches. On most occasions, these have been full-depth, wet-snow avalanches, and this led some people to express their surprise: how could low-speed masses of wet snow exert sufficiently high levels of pressure to severely damage engineered structures designed to carry heavy loads? This paper reviews the current state of knowledge about the formation of glide avalanches and the forces exerted on simple structures by a gliding mass of snow. One particular difficulty in reviewing the existing literature on gliding snow and on force calculations is that much of the theoretical and phenomenological analyses were presented in technical reports that date back to the earliest developments of avalanche science in the 1930s. Returning to these primary sources and attempting to put them into a contemporary perspective are vital. A detailed, modern analysis of them shows that the order of magnitude of the forces exerted by gliding snow can indeed be estimated correctly. The precise physical mechanisms remain elusive, however. We comment on the existing approaches in light of the most recent findings about related topics, including the physics of granular and plastic flows, and from field surveys of snow and avalanches (as well as glaciers and debris flows). Methods of calculating the forces exerted by glide avalanches are compared quantitatively on the basis of two case studies. This paper shows that if snow depth and density are known, then certain approaches can indeed predict the forces exerted on simple obstacles in the event of glide avalanches or gliding snow cover.

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“…Rutllant and Fuenzalida, 1991;Escobar and others, 1995;Leiva, 1999;Montecinos and Aceituno, 2003;Garreaud and others, 2009;Gascoin and others, 2011;Mernild and others, 2015). ENSO events have also been linked to increases in winter snowfall and a higher frequency of avalanches in the central Chilean Andes (Masiokas and others, 2006;McClung, 2013). Evidence suggests that precipitation patterns in the central Chilean and Argentinean Andes have undergone significant changes over the past ∼30 year (Pellicciotti and others, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier area changes in the central Chilean and Argentinean Andes 1955–2013/14

Malmros

Mernild

Wilson³

et al. 2016

J. Glaciol.

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ABSTRACT. To improve our knowledge of glacier area changes in the central Chilean and Argentinean Andes (32°9′S-33°4′S), two new glacier inventories from 1989 to 2013/14 are compared with a reinterpreted inventory from 1955. Comparisons show glacier area retreat of 30 ± 3% since 1955, decreasing from 134 to 94 km 2 in 2013/14, whilst the annual rate of area loss showed a small increase (insignificant) between the periods of 1955-1989 and 1989-2013/14. Separate analysis of the 1989 and 2013/14 inventories, including a larger sample, revealed a higher rate of glacier change compared with the smaller samples of these inventories. Additionally, an analysis at ∼5 year intervals for six major glaciers indicates large variability in response times and area loss magnitudes. Glacier Olivares Alfa, for example, lost 63% of its ice area, while the Juncal Norte Glacier lost only 10% . The findings from this study improve our current knowledge base concerning widespread glacier decline in the southern Andes, and furthers monitoring efforts in this poorly described region of the world, a region containing vital water resources for populated areas in South America.

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The effects of El Niño and La Niña on snow and avalanche patterns in British Columbia, Canada, and central Chile

Abstract: ABSTRACT. El Niñ o and La

Cited by 28 publications

References 19 publications

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

Dynamics of glide avalanches and snow gliding

Glacier area changes in the central Chilean and Argentinean Andes 1955–2013/14

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