Nowcasting with Google Trends in an Emerging Market

Carrière‐Swallow, Yan; Labbé, Felipe

doi:10.1002/for.1252

Cited by 210 publications

(102 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(27 reference statements)

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“…The search behavior shows a clear pattern. Similar Google Trends patterns have proven to have significant correlations with a large variety of aspects in commerce, including stock market movements [67], trading behavior [68], automobile sales [69], company evaluations [70], and private consumption [71].…”

Section: Big Data: Informing Business Growth Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 89%

The More You Know, the More You Can Grow: An Information Theoretic Approach to Growth in the Information Age

Hilbert

2017

Entropy

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In our information age, information alone has become a driver of social growth. Information is the fuel of "big data" companies, and the decision-making compass of policy makers. Can we quantify how much information leads to how much social growth potential? Information theory is used to show that information (in bits) is effectively a quantifiable ingredient of growth. The article presents a single equation that allows both to describe hands-off natural selection of evolving populations and to optimize population fitness in uncertain environments through intervention. The setup analyzes the communication channel between the growing population and its uncertain environment. The role of information in population growth can be thought of as the optimization of information flow over this (more or less) noisy channel. Optimized growth implies that the population absorbs all communicated environmental structure during evolutionary updating (measured by their mutual information). This is achieved by endogenously adjusting the population structure to the exogenous environmental pattern (through bet-hedging/portfolio management). The setup can be applied to decompose the growth of any discrete population in stationary, stochastic environments (economic, cultural, or biological). Two empirical examples from the information economy reveal inherent trade-offs among the involved information quantities during growth optimization.

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Section: Big Data: Informing Business Growth Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 89%

The More You Know, the More You Can Grow: An Information Theoretic Approach to Growth in the Information Age

Hilbert

2017

Entropy

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“…The popularity and the epidemiology of (ab)use of amphetamines and ATS can be inferred with high accuracy via the web, specifically the surface web by means of trends databases including Google Trends (Carrière Swallow -and Labbé, 2013;Choi and Varian, 2012). Google trends analyses can be either retrospective or cross-sectional; these are highly accurate, as they are based on extrapolation of data from millions of users of the web (surface web).…”

Section: Google Trends Analyses: Amphetamine and Amphetamine-type Stimentioning

confidence: 99%

Adverse Effects of Amphetamines on the Cardiovascular System: Review and Retrospective Analyses of Trends

Al-Imam¹

2017

GJHS

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Background: Amphetamine and amphetamine-type stimulants are powerful physical and psychostimulants; they are phenethylamine derivatives. The use of amphetamines can be either medicinal or illicit. Several amphetamines have been redesigned into illegal drugs of potent properties, also known as research chemicals and designer drugs. Hence, they are named novel (new) psychoactive substances (NPS). Materials and Methods:This study is a hybrid study of; data crunching and retrospective analysis of a trends database (1), and a systematic review of literature in relation to the amphetamines-induced adverse effects on the cardiovascular system (2). Google Trends database has been analysed in retrospect (2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017) to evaluate the attentiveness of surface web users towards amphetamine and a potent renowned amphetamine derivative known as captagon (fenethylline).Results: Amphetamines appear to be highly popular worldwide, particularly in the developed world including North America and European countries, and to a less extent in the developing countries including the Middle East. However, the trends are oscillating with time with significant year-to-year changes although there was some steadiness in the temporal patterns (trends), for example in 2013-2014 (p-value=0.258). Variations in the trends were found to be correlated with global events including international terrorism. The adverse effects of amphetamines were found to be highly related to the cardiovascular system with a high incidence of intoxications and deaths among substance (ab)users. Conclusion:Several amphetamines are potent and used illicitly beyond their original therapeutic potential, as in the case of captagon, culminating in monumental public and economic threats. Legalising bodies should exercise tremendous and systematic efforts to counteract these threats. Database analyses can provide an accurate insight into this phenomenon that has been growing exponentially in the past decade.

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“…Google Trends database reflect the attentiveness (interest) of surface web users in connection with any item that can be searched via Google search engine (Carrière Swallow and Labbé, 2013;-Gamma et al, 2016). The analyses are retrospective and reflect an extrapolation of data generated from millions of surface web users.…”

Section: Case Reportmentioning

confidence: 99%

Google Trends Analyses and Case Report: A Persistently Dilated Pupil in Psychedelics’ User

Al-Imam¹

2017

GJHS

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An eighteen years old female patient of the Caucasian ethnicity from New Zealand, she presented with a persistently dilated pupil causing her discomfort and occasional burning sensation when outdoor due to an oversensitivity to sunlight. However, her pupillary reaction to light (pupillary light reflex) was intact. The patient is a known user of psychedelic substances (entheogens) including LSD, NBOMe, psilocybin, and DMT. The condition affects both eyes to the same extent. A thorough medical, neurological, and radiological examination, including an EEG and an MRI of the head and neck region, were completely normal. All these tests failed to detect any pathophysiological or anatomical abnormalities. The patient is a known case of chronic endogenous depression in association with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, for which she is medicating with citalopram and Ritalin respectively. There was neither a family history nor a similar congenital condition in her family. Collateral inferential statistical analyses were implemented in relation to Google Trends database to seek out relevant data in relation to psychedelic substances and their corresponding geographic mapping.

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Nowcasting with Google Trends in an Emerging Market

Cited by 210 publications

References 18 publications

The More You Know, the More You Can Grow: An Information Theoretic Approach to Growth in the Information Age

The More You Know, the More You Can Grow: An Information Theoretic Approach to Growth in the Information Age

Adverse Effects of Amphetamines on the Cardiovascular System: Review and Retrospective Analyses of Trends

Google Trends Analyses and Case Report: A Persistently Dilated Pupil in Psychedelics’ User

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