Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

Abstract

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980–2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

“…One reason for the lack of a strong positive association may be that increasing gender equality could change men's incentives for having children in ways that are poorly understood, and some of these forces may be negative. At present, cohort fertility in the Nordic countries is predicted to decline for the first time in decades, further challenging these predictions of a positive relationship (Hellstrand et al, 2020(Hellstrand et al, , 2021. Since there have been no signs of weakening gender equality in families or significant changes in family policies in the recent decade, the Nordic fertility decline calls for alternative explanations.…”

“…1;Official Statistics of Finland (OSF), 2019;Human Fertility Database, 2019). The Nordic fertility decline likely reflects declining lifetime fertility given that completed cohort fertility is projected to decline substantially for the first time in decades (Hellstrand et al, 2020(Hellstrand et al, , 2021. This projected decline is surprising, since the Nordic region previously featured a relatively high and stable cohort fertility, partly enabled by extensive social policy support provided by these countries intended to reconcile work and family life (Esping-Andersen, 2009;McDonald, 2000).…”

“…This projected decline is surprising, since the Nordic region previously featured a relatively high and stable cohort fertility, partly enabled by extensive social policy support provided by these countries intended to reconcile work and family life (Esping-Andersen, 2009;McDonald, 2000). Important findings identified first births as the main driver of the Nordic fertility decline (Hellstrand et al, 2020(Hellstrand et al, , 2021. In Finland, for instance, 75% of the decline is attributable to first births (Hellstrand et al, 2020(Hellstrand et al, , 2021.…”

“…Important findings identified first births as the main driver of the Nordic fertility decline (Hellstrand et al, 2020(Hellstrand et al, , 2021. In Finland, for instance, 75% of the decline is attributable to first births (Hellstrand et al, 2020(Hellstrand et al, , 2021. Therefore, a better understanding of why first births continue to decline should allow us to understand the general fertility decline.…”

Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s

“…The fertility decline in the 2010s was remarkable in all Nordic countries: Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland. It has mainly been attributable to changing firstbirth trends (Hellstrand et al 2021) and in Sweden appears uniquely confined to this birth order . As a first step in our analysis, we demonstrate that this previous finding for women is replicated when studying men.…”