Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

Abstract

In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union–first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual simulations showed that, for the decline in first births since 2010, fertility within unions matters more (three-quarters) than union dynamics (one-quarter): that is, lower fertility in cohabitating and married individuals explained 42% and 13% of the decline, respectively, and decreasing fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation explained a further 17%. Decreasing marriage (19%) and cohabitation rates (2–4%) as well as higher union dissolution rates (6%) explained a smaller share of the first birth decline. The decline in first births was somewhat sharper among the lower social strata, but across strata the decreasing first birth transitions in unions explained most of the decline. To conclude, while changing union dynamics provide a partial explanation, postponing or foregoing fertility within unions represents the primary reason for the fertility decline.

Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s

“…In this study we have not examined the role of partnering, because such data are not available in full for years before 2011. However, in line with findings from Finland (Hellstrand, Nisén, and Myrskylä 2022), ongoing research from Sweden (Neyer et al 2022) shows that most of the first-birth decline was due to decreasing fertility within unions and only a minor part was related to changing partner dynamics.…”

Web-Based Dynamic Nomograms for Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival in Breast Cancer Patients with Lung Metastases

“…Reducing psychosocial support and psychological stress will affect the immune and endocrine systems and accelerate tumor growth and patient death [ 27 ]. Furthermore, with the further development of the industrialization process, the human marriage rate may be further reduced [ 28 ]. Therefore, in clinical work, providing psychosocial support from medical workers may help improve the survival of patients.…”

Can total fertility rate be predicted?

“…The Population Research Institute has also analyzed the reasons for the decline in the birth rate, but no clear cause has been found (Rotkirch et al, 2017). Hellstrand et al (2022) argue that most of the decline in fertility results from reduced fertility within unions, but also a change in union dynamics after 2010 contributes to the decline. Hellstrand et al (2022) observe a lower fertility in unions after 2010 and an increasing dissolution rates among cohabiting couples.…”

“…Hellstrand et al (2022) argue that most of the decline in fertility results from reduced fertility within unions, but also a change in union dynamics after 2010 contributes to the decline. Hellstrand et al (2022) observe a lower fertility in unions after 2010 and an increasing dissolution rates among cohabiting couples.…”