Can total fertility rate be predicted?

Abstract

The Finnish birth rate has fallen dramatically since 2010: the number of children born in Finland has fallen from 61,000 in 2010 to 44,900 in 2022. According to the preliminary data for 2022, the total fertility rate is at 1.31, which is the lowest ever. The downward trend has continued for almost the entire period 2010-2022, so there is no question of whether this is a result of random variation. In this study, I review how well the fertility forecast made in 2018 has performed. It turns out that the forecast is quite good. The forecast manages to predict the total fertility number in Finland almost exactly in 2022, and the trend from 2018-2022 quite well. As a further development, I refit the factor model to a more recent data and present a new forecast for years 2023-2030. The main factors driving fertility in the factor model are urbanization, the rate of marriages and the ratio of daily users in social media platforms. Changes in these factors can largely explain the reduction in the total fertility number in Finland. According to the revised fertility forecast, the future looks bleak, but love may surprise.