Abstract:The numerous environmental flows assessment methods that exist typically assume a stationary climate. Adaptive management is commonly put forward as the preferred approach for managing uncertainty and change in environmental flows. However, we contend that a simple adaptive management loop falls short of meeting the challenges posed by climate change. Rather, a fundamental rethink is required to ensure both the structure of environmental flows assessments, along with each individual technical element, actively… Show more
“…1 ) used to evaluate the participatory process (shown in yellow). Further detail regarding the participatory process and case study can be found in Horne et al ( 2020 , 2022 ) and in online supplementary materials. Fig.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this paper, we outline a process for evaluating the success of a participatory approach implemented during an e-flows assessment in Victoria, Australia. The e-flows assessment blended elements of structured decision-making and participatory modeling (Horne et al 2022 , Mussehl et al 2022 ). Our purpose in this paper is not to present the participatory methodology itself, but to focus on the evaluation and assessment of participation.…”
Environmental flows (e-flows) management takes place within a complex social-ecological system, necessitating the involvement of diverse stakeholders and an appreciation of a range of perspectives and knowledge types. It is widely accepted that incorporating participatory methods into environmental flows decision-making will allow stakeholders to become meaningfully involved, improving potential solutions, and fostering social legitimacy. However, due to substantial structural barriers, implementing participatory approaches can be difficult for water managers. This paper assesses the effectiveness of an e-flows methodology that combines elements of structured decision-making and participatory modeling, whilst constrained by project resources. Three process-based objectives were identified by the group at the start of the process: improving transparency, knowledge exchange, and community ownership. We evaluated the success of the approach according to those objectives using semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis. In evaluating how well the participatory approach achieved the process objectives, we found that at least 80% of respondents expressed positive sentiment in every category (n = 15). We demonstrate that the values-based process objectives defined by the participant group are an effective tool for evaluating participatory success. This paper highlights that participatory approaches can be effective even in resource-constrained environments when the process is adapted to fit the decision-making context.
“…1 ) used to evaluate the participatory process (shown in yellow). Further detail regarding the participatory process and case study can be found in Horne et al ( 2020 , 2022 ) and in online supplementary materials. Fig.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this paper, we outline a process for evaluating the success of a participatory approach implemented during an e-flows assessment in Victoria, Australia. The e-flows assessment blended elements of structured decision-making and participatory modeling (Horne et al 2022 , Mussehl et al 2022 ). Our purpose in this paper is not to present the participatory methodology itself, but to focus on the evaluation and assessment of participation.…”
Environmental flows (e-flows) management takes place within a complex social-ecological system, necessitating the involvement of diverse stakeholders and an appreciation of a range of perspectives and knowledge types. It is widely accepted that incorporating participatory methods into environmental flows decision-making will allow stakeholders to become meaningfully involved, improving potential solutions, and fostering social legitimacy. However, due to substantial structural barriers, implementing participatory approaches can be difficult for water managers. This paper assesses the effectiveness of an e-flows methodology that combines elements of structured decision-making and participatory modeling, whilst constrained by project resources. Three process-based objectives were identified by the group at the start of the process: improving transparency, knowledge exchange, and community ownership. We evaluated the success of the approach according to those objectives using semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis. In evaluating how well the participatory approach achieved the process objectives, we found that at least 80% of respondents expressed positive sentiment in every category (n = 15). We demonstrate that the values-based process objectives defined by the participant group are an effective tool for evaluating participatory success. This paper highlights that participatory approaches can be effective even in resource-constrained environments when the process is adapted to fit the decision-making context.
“…Adaptive management is one method to acknowledge this uncertainty and improve knowledge through testing hypotheses, implementing and monitoring actions, and adjusting future decisions and actions based on the results. Adaptive management is well acknowledged and included in environmental water management (Tonkin et al, 2020;Watts et al, 2020;Horne et al, 2022), but there can be lagged ecological feedbacks, and thresholds or tipping points may pass before managers are even aware. Other reasons also prohibit widespread adoption of adaptive management such as institutional risk aversion of looking like a 'failure' and insufficient resourcing, amongst others (Allan et al, 2008;Stults and Larsen, 2020).…”
Section: Actionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…There is clear evidence that anthropogenic climate change is occurring, yet agreement on how to adapt environmental flow management is far from absolute. Environmental flow assessments (and recommendations) typically aim to restore ecosystems to an historic condition or protect them from further change and use historic flow regimes to make recommendations (Capon et al, 2018;Horne et al, 2022). However the past is not a good representation of the future and climate adaptation is required when determining flow objectives and recommendations for future environmental water (Judd et al, 2022).…”
Uncertainty can be an impediment to decision making and result in decision paralysis. In environmental flow management, system complexity and natural variability increase uncertainty. Climate change provides further uncertainty and can hinder decision making altogether. Environmental flow managers express reluctance to include climate change adaptation in planning due to large knowledge gaps in hydro-ecological relationships. We applied a hybrid method of hypothetical scenarios and closed ended questions within a survey to investigate ecological trade off decision making behaviours and cognitive processes of environmental flow managers. The scenarios provided were both similar to participants’ past experiences, and others were entirely unprecedented and hence unfamiliar. We found managers were more confident making decisions in situations they are familiar with, and most managers show low levels of confidence in making trade off decisions under uncertain circumstances. When given a choice, the most common response to uncertainty was to gather additional information, however information is often unavailable or inaccessible–either it does not exist, or uncertainties are so great that decisions are deferred. Given future rainfall is likely to be different from the past, environmental flow managers must work to adopt robust decision making frameworks that will increase confidence in decision making by acknowledging uncertainties. This can be done through tools developed to address decision making under deep uncertainty. Adapting these tools and methods to environmental flow management will ensure managers can begin to consider likely, necessary future trade-offs in a more informed, transparent and robust manner and increase confidence in decision making under uncertainty.
“…presented inJudd et al (2022) andHorne et al (2022) Judd et al (2022). suggest a process for setting "climate ready" ecological objectives that incorporate the latest science and community values and iteratively testing objectives against future scenarios until an acceptable trade off (if required) is reached Horne et al (2022). provide a new flow assessment method that uses ecological models to include consideration of future change and uncertainty.…”
Climate change is irreversibly changing the water cycle, yet existing environmental flow assessment methods often fail to recognize the non-stationarity of hydro-climatic systems. Failure to do so will lead to the inability of environmental water management to achieve its ecological targets. Australia has undergone major reform over the past 12 years to recover water from consumptive use for environmental benefit and this paper examines how government agencies responsible for planning and delivery of environmental water establish ecological objectives, and whether there are any barriers to including climate adaptations. We used semi-structured interviews and an online survey of environmental water staff throughout Australia, focusing on southeast Australia, to gather information on methods and perceptions regarding these key issues. The results show water managers perceive current ecological objectives as unachievable and are frustrated by using outdated, government-recommended flow assessment methods. There are many general and industry-specific barriers to climate adaptation that are not insurmountable, yet the current lack of legislative and policy guidance provides little assistance on the best way to respond. We conclude that environmental water planning needs to more formally incorporate climate change considerations along with modelling approaches that can evaluate outcomes under a range of possible future hydro-climatic scenarios to ensure proactive decision making can occur. As the industry currently exists in Australia, it is ill prepared for the challenge of meeting legislated ecological targets under future climates.
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