Implementing environmental flows has emerged as a major river management tool for addressing the impacts of hydrologic alteration in large river systems. The “natural flow paradigm” has been a central guiding principle for determining important ecohydrological relationships. Yet, climate change and associated changes in rainfall run off relationships, seasonality of flows, disruptions to food webs and species life cycle cues mean these existing relationships will, in many circumstances, become obsolete. Revised thinking around setting ecological objectives is required to ensure environmental management targets are achievable, particularly in regions where water scarcity is predicted to increase. Through this lens “climate ready” targets are those that are robust to changing water availability or incorporate future adaptation options. Future objective setting should be based around the inclusion of changing climate and water availability, and the associated species and ecosystem vulnerabilities, and expected outcomes under different policy and adaptation options. This paper uses south eastern Australia as a case study region to review the extent to which current water management plans include climate considerations and adaptation in objective setting. Results show untested climate adaptation inclusions, and a general lack of acknowledgement of changing hydrological and ecological conditions in existing management plans. In response this paper presents a process for setting objectives so they can be considered “climate ready.”

Climate change is irreversibly changing the water cycle, yet existing environmental flow assessment methods often fail to recognize the non-stationarity of hydro-climatic systems. Failure to do so will lead to the inability of environmental water management to achieve its ecological targets. Australia has undergone major reform over the past 12 years to recover water from consumptive use for environmental benefit and this paper examines how government agencies responsible for planning and delivery of environmental water establish ecological objectives, and whether there are any barriers to including climate adaptations. We used semi-structured interviews and an online survey of environmental water staff throughout Australia, focusing on southeast Australia, to gather information on methods and perceptions regarding these key issues. The results show water managers perceive current ecological objectives as unachievable and are frustrated by using outdated, government-recommended flow assessment methods. There are many general and industry-specific barriers to climate adaptation that are not insurmountable, yet the current lack of legislative and policy guidance provides little assistance on the best way to respond. We conclude that environmental water planning needs to more formally incorporate climate change considerations along with modelling approaches that can evaluate outcomes under a range of possible future hydro-climatic scenarios to ensure proactive decision making can occur. As the industry currently exists in Australia, it is ill prepared for the challenge of meeting legislated ecological targets under future climates.

Uncertainty can be an impediment to decision making and result in decision paralysis. In environmental flow management, system complexity and natural variability increase uncertainty. Climate change provides further uncertainty and can hinder decision making altogether. Environmental flow managers express reluctance to include climate change adaptation in planning due to large knowledge gaps in hydro-ecological relationships. We applied a hybrid method of hypothetical scenarios and closed ended questions within a survey to investigate ecological trade off decision making behaviours and cognitive processes of environmental flow managers. The scenarios provided were both similar to participants’ past experiences, and others were entirely unprecedented and hence unfamiliar. We found managers were more confident making decisions in situations they are familiar with, and most managers show low levels of confidence in making trade off decisions under uncertain circumstances. When given a choice, the most common response to uncertainty was to gather additional information, however information is often unavailable or inaccessible–either it does not exist, or uncertainties are so great that decisions are deferred. Given future rainfall is likely to be different from the past, environmental flow managers must work to adopt robust decision making frameworks that will increase confidence in decision making by acknowledging uncertainties. This can be done through tools developed to address decision making under deep uncertainty. Adapting these tools and methods to environmental flow management will ensure managers can begin to consider likely, necessary future trade-offs in a more informed, transparent and robust manner and increase confidence in decision making under uncertainty.

Climate change is irreversibly changing the water cycle, yet existing environmental flow assessment methods often fail to recognise the non stationarity of hydro climatic systems. Failure to do so will lead to the inability of environmental water management to achieve its restoration targets. Australia has undergone major reform over the past twelve years to recover water from consumptive use for environmental benefit. This paper examines how government agencies responsible for the planning and delivery of that environmental water establish ecological objectives, whether climate change adaptations are considered important, and if not whether there is a clear rationale or barrier to adaptation. We used semi structured interviews and an online survey of staff involved in environmental water management throughout Australia, with a focus on south east Australia, to gather information on methods and perceptions regarding these key issues. The results show water management staff are aware of the general impacts climate change will have on local areas they are responsible for. However, they do not have the necessary, detailed information about how ecosystems are likely to respond to climate change to plan with confidence. There is also a lack of legislative and policy guidance as to how to deal with the potential inability to meet existing environmental targets. We conclude that environmental water planning needs to more formally incorporate climate change considerations along with modelling approaches that can evaluate outcomes under a range of possible future hydro climatic scenarios. As the industry currently exists in Australia, it is ill prepared for the challenge of meeting legislated ecological targets under future climates.

Implementing environmental flows has emerged as a major restoration tool for addressing the impacts of hydrologic alteration in large river systems. The ‘natural flow paradigm’ has been a central guiding principle for determining important ecohydrological relationships. Yet, climate change and associated changes in rainfall run off relationships, seasonality of flows, disruptions to food webs and species life cycle cues mean these existing relationships will, in many circumstances, become obsolete. Revised thinking around setting ecological objectives is required to ensure restoration targets are achievable, particularly in regions where water scarcity is predicted to increase. Through this lens ‘climate ready’ targets are those that are robust to changing water availability or incorporate future adaptation options. Future objective setting should be based around the inclusion of changing climate and water availability, and the associated species and ecosystem vulnerabilities, and expected outcomes under different policy and adaptation options. This paper uses south eastern Australia as a case study region to review the extent to which current water management plans include climate considerations and adaptation in objective setting. Results show untested climate adaptation inclusions, and a general lack of acknowledgement of changing hydrological and ecological conditions in existing management plans. In response this paper presents a process for setting objectives so they can be considered ‘climate ready’.