Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925–95

Pielke, Roger A.; Landsea, Christopher W.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0621:nhditu>2.0.co;2

Cited by 437 publications

(306 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…This normalization is achieved by allowing for changes in inflation, wealth, and population, plus an additional factor, which represents a change in the number of housing units that exceeds population growth between the year of the loss and 2000. We extend the original Collins and Lowe (2001) Pielke and Landsea (1998), who estimated total economic losses attributable to hurricanes since 1900. The rank correlation between the two annual hurricane loss time series is high, at 0.90 .…”

Section: Normalized Insured Losses: 1900-2005mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting US insured hurricane losses

Jagger

Elsner

Saunders³

2008

Climate Extremes and Society

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Coastal hurricanes generate huge financial losses within the insurance industry. The relative infrequency of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical probability estimates of the next big loss will be unreliable. Hurricane climatologists have recently developed statistical models to forecast the level of coastal hurricane activity based on climate conditions prior to the season. Motivated by the usefulness of such models, in this chapter we analyze and model a catalog of normalized insured losses caused by hurricanes affecting the United States. The catalog of losses dates back through the twentieth century. The purpose of this work is to develop a preseason forecast tool that can be used for insurance applications. Although wind speed is directly related to damage potential, the amount of damage depends on both storm intensity and storm size. As anticipated, we found that climate conditions prior to a hurricane season provide information about possible future insured hurricane losses. The models exploit this information to predict the distribution of likely annual losses and the distribution of a worst-case catastrophic loss aggregated over the entire US coast.

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Section: Normalized Insured Losses: 1900-2005mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting US insured hurricane losses

Jagger

Elsner

Saunders³

2008

Climate Extremes and Society

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“…However, careful analysis of climate data and loss records shows that more frequent or more intense storms are not necessarily the cause, or at least the sole cause, of increasing damages. Rather, there is more at risk today (Pielke and Landsea, 1998). Three factors account for the increasing potential for loss: (1) adjustments to the value of the dollar largely as the result of inflation, (2) increasing population and growing settlement densities in coastal areas, and (3) the nation's personal wealth, which has increased dramatically over the years.…”

Section: Trends In the Frequency And Magnitude Of Coastalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When the loss record is normalized to correct for these underlying changes, the picture is very different (Pielke and Landsea, 1998). Instead of increases in losses, normalized damages actually decreased in the 1970s and 1980s; nor are losses in the 1990s unprecedented (Table 4).…”

Section: Trends In the Frequency And Magnitude Of Coastalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Human Activity on Behavior of Breeding American Oystercatchers, Cumberland Island National Seashore, Georgia, USA

et al. 2008

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About This Report For More InformationThis report examines underlying and emerging trends that are shaping the coast, coastal resources and uses, and coastal management and policy. Past and projected trends are presented in population and settlement; economic activity; social values; resources; environmental quality; hazards; and governance and management. An effort is made to use enough contextual information so that the data convey a story about the present and future of the nation's coasts. AcknowledgmentsMany staff members of the National Ocean Service Special Projects Office contributed to this paper in important ways by identifying information sources, contributing data and analysis, or providing critical technical support. The following individuals obtained and provided information: Suzanne Bricker and Chris Clement (eutrophication), Timothy Goodspeed (marine pollution), Miranda Harris (coastal hazards, marine recreation), Vernon Leeworthy (marine recreation), John Hayes (social trends), Percy Pacheco (water quality), Davida Remer (governance and management), Craig Russell (energy and minerals), John Paul Tolson (various) and Peter Wiley (marine aquaculture, marine recreation). Blair Bower and Timothy Goodspeed reviewed the manuscript and made numerous helpful suggestions. Davida Remer and Craig Russell designed and incorporated the figures and tables. Pam Rubin edited the report and designed the cover. The authors also wish to acknowledge the contribution of Daniel J. Basta, Director of the Special Projects Office, who supported the effort and made the resources available.

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“…In any case, it's likely the case that developing countries are underinsured against such shocks. Even in the United States, it is estimated that insurance covers at best half of the actual damage caused by hurricanes [Pielke, Jr. and Landsea, 1998]. …”

Section: Baseline Specification -Hurricane Damages Alonementioning

confidence: 99%

Hurricanes: Intertemporal Trade and Capital Shocks

Bluedorn

2005

SSRN Journal

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Hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America represent a natural experiment to test the intertemporal approach to current account determination. The intertemporal approach allows for the possibility of intertemporal trade, via international borrowing. Previous tests of intertemporal current account (ICA) models have typically relied upon the identification of shocks in a VAR framework with which to trace the current account response. Hurricane shocks represent exactly the kind of temporary, country-specific shock required by the theory, allowing for the intertemporal current account response to be estimated without recourse to a VAR shock decomposition. Using data on the economic damages attributable to a hurricane, I estimate the economy's response to a hurricane-induced capital shock within a fixed effects panel model. The current account response qualitatively conforms to the S-shaped response predicted by the theory, indicating that countries are engaging in intertemporal trade. However, the exact timing and magnitude of the response differs from a standard ICA model's smooth behavior. A hurricane which destroys capital valued at one year's GDP pushes the current account over GDP into deficit by 5 percentage points initially. 3-8 years after such a hurricane, the current account over GDP moves into surplus at 2.7 percentage points.JEL Classification: F320, F410

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Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925–95

Cited by 437 publications

References 9 publications

Forecasting US insured hurricane losses

Forecasting US insured hurricane losses

Effects of Human Activity on Behavior of Breeding American Oystercatchers, Cumberland Island National Seashore, Georgia, USA

Hurricanes: Intertemporal Trade and Capital Shocks

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